Ohio State built complicated case for No. 1 in first playoff rankings, while Michigan has none
COLUMBUS, Ohio — Ohio State football traded in lopsided blowouts and style points for grinding out what are, by its own standard, ugly wins.
That new identity resulted in the best collection of wins of any team in the country through the first nine weeks. We find out tonight whether the College Football Selection committee recognizes substance over style with its first playoff rankings reveal at 7 p.m. on ESPN.
Only five Power 5 teams are undefeated, so the top four spots will come from that cohort. No one from that group has a top-12 road win except Ohio State (17-14 at Notre Dame). No other team has a second victory over a top-10 team, except OSU (20-12 over Penn State).
Last Saturday’s 24-10 victory at Wisconsin, again, did not jump off the page the way a 52-21 victory over the Badgers did last season. However, it was another example of the OSU defense controlling a solid opponent almost from start to finish and the Buckeye playmakers on offense stepping up in big moments.
The committee is accustomed to OSU showing up undefeated at the first reveal. It is not accustomed to it looking quite like this, though — relentlessly stingy on defense but without elite offensive efficiency. After leading the nation in yards per play the past two seasons, the Buckeyes rank 26th.
By contrast, one cannot ignore Michigan’s performance. Allowing a mere 5.9 points per game. Scoring more than 40. J.J. McCarthy is rising up the Heisman Trophy odds and the Wolverine machine appears to be even more well-oiled than in either of the last two seasons, when the committee put them in the playoff.
Michigan tops ESPN’s SP+ by a wide margin (29.2 to 26.4 over Georgia). Whatever metrics the committee uses will likely also reflect well on the two-time defending Big Ten champs.
However, one can question the schedule against which Michigan achieved that performance. It played no Power 5 teams in the nonconference. It started its march to 8-0 against a decent UNLV team, a middle MAC program in Bowling Green and East Carolina, currently in last place in the American Athletic Conference.
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Then the Wolverines tore through a Big Ten selection that peaks with six-win Rutgers and five-win Minnesota. They can’t control that their conference schedule was back-loaded. If and when they beat Penn State next week their resume will improve considerably.
But the committee will likely make them wait to show that proof, rather than assume it.
As for the other noise around Michigan right now — the allegations of breaking scouting rules to steal signs — the committee should ignore it. What other option does it have? Investigations are ongoing, and no governing body has come forward with final proof of anything, let alone a judgement.
My prediction for how the final five Power 5 unbeatens will line up tonight:
5. Washington (8-0). In terms of the other rankings, Washington’s 36-33 victory over Oregon is the single-best win so far. The committee also likes playmakers, and the Huskies have a bunch, starting with the current Heisman Trophy betting favorite, quarterback Michael Penix Jr. However, wins over the likes of Arizona State and Stanford have been to close for comfort and should give the committee reason to start the Huskies at a lower seed. Would not be shocked, though, to see them above the Wolverines.
4. Michigan (8-0). The selection committee members should be impressed by the dominance on both sides of the ball. They should be dismissive of the non-conference schedule and unimpressed by the limp Big Ten challenges faced so far. (By the way, OSU’s non-conference schedule next season might be worse, so a cut-and-paste with minor revisions might be in store a year from now.)
3. Georgia (8-0). The Bulldogs have easily topped the Associated Press Top 25 poll going back to the preseason. Some have tried to lump the Bulldogs with Michigan’s lack of competition, but last week’s 48-20 road win at Florida alone puts them in a different category. Still, the two-time defending national champs may have no wins over teams in the committee’s top 25 tonight.
2. Florida State (8-0). No, the wins at Clemson and against Duke did not retain the luster they held when they occurred. That early win over current No. 13 LSU still resonates, though. That two-point win at Boston College that once seemed like a blemish? Well, the Eagles have won four straight and are 5-3. Not a pretty win, but also not one problematic enough to damage this quality resume.
1. Ohio State (8-0). Since we already talked about the resume, let’s discuss other factors. The defense leads the country in yards allowed per play and held Notre Dame, Penn State and Wisconsin to 41 total points. Marvin Harrison Jr. goes on anyone’s list of the most exciting players in football. And since the committee watches every game, it knows the inconsistent offense had been playing without both TreVeyon Henderson and Emeka Egbuka for the past few weeks.
Some metrics, including ESPN’s FPI, also have OSU on top (27.5, follow closely by Michigan’s 26.8).
The Buckeyes have been the No. 1 team at the first reveal only once before — in 2019. That team traded spots with LSU before settling in as the No. 2 seed.
Tonight’s reveal triggers new debates, but it settles nothing. That 2019 team still had to go to Ann Arbor and win to even make the playoff, and this one might need to as well.
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