PrizePicks NBA Prediction Today: Top Plays for October 30
Monday Night Football may take center stage tonight, but we’ve also got a gargantuan 11-game NBA slate with which to entertain ourselves. As usual, PrizePicks has a slew of squares already posted and ready for your perusal ahead of this hefty NBA docket.
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NBA PrizePicks Predictions Today
Below are a few of our favorite PrizePicks plays for the October 30th slate.
In case you were otherwise preoccupied sweating your NFL lineups yesterday afternoon, you may have missed that the Hawks switched up their starting lineup. Saddiq Bey was sent back to the bench, while Jalen Johnson drew a surprise start. Considering Atlanta went on to completely obliterate the Bucks in Milwaukee, I’d be shocked if Quin Snyder didn’t trot that same starting 5 out there tonight when the Hawks host the Timberwolves.
Johnson only played 26 minutes to Bey’s 31 last night, but I wouldn’t overreact too much. Johnson picked up his 4th foul early in the 3rd quarter, which kept him on the bench until the beginning of the 4th quarter. Snyder also yanked the starters with his team up by approximately one million points about halfway through the final frame. We have Johnson conservatively projected to play 28 minutes tonight, but I’m inclined to think we’re a little low. He played 29 and 31 minutes, respectively, off the bench in the Hawks’ first two games.
Johnson’s 13.9% rebound rate this season puts him a distant second on the team behind Clint Capela, but there’s no shame in that considering Capela has been one of the league’s better rebounders for about a decade now. Johnson was at about 15% last season, so there’s still room for growth in that regard as the season progresses.
He’s hauled in at least 7 boards in each of the first three games this season, while he’s dished out at least 2 assists in two of those three. Because I’m bullish on his minutes, I think the former Blue Devil can breeze past 8.5 combined rebounds and assists in tonight’s game. Our aforementioned PrizePicks tool gives Johnson about a 70% chance of doing so, even in those 28 projected minutes.
The Pelicans have no shortage of stars in the lineup now that Zion Williamson is back, but let’s not forget about the man in the middle. Jonas Valanciunas is off to a bit of a rocky start through the season’s first two games. He’s averaging 10 points and 8 rebounds thus far, though he was saddled with foul trouble in the last game against the Knicks. He picked up his 3rd early in the 2nd quarter, which played a significant role in his underwhelming 21-minute outing.
JoVal’s usage has predictably taken a hit with Zion back in the mix. He was at 23.6% last season, and he’s down to just 19% early on this season. Interestingly, his assist rate has also gone into the tank, though we’re obviously working with a tiny sample. Valanciunas finished with a decent 10.9% assist rate in 2022-23. This season, he’s at 2.5%. We’re not expecting him to be Nikola Jokic out there, but he is a passable playmaker for a big.
Valanciunas played 29 minutes on opening night, so we’re hedging a bit with our current 25-minute projection tonight. He’s averaged at least 14 points per game in every season since 2018-19, and I’d expect his scoring output to be the key to this square tonight. The Pelicans are 3.5-point home favorites over a potentially fatigued Warriors squad that played in Houston last night.
Kyle Lowry Less Than 9.5 Points
Kyle Lowry has had a phenomenal career, but his best days as a player seem to be in the rearview mirror. He’s played a significant role in each of Miami’s first three games, but his offensive output has been nearly nonexistent. Lowry has a total of 16 points despite having played exactly 32 minutes in every game. 13 of those points came in one game, while he went scoreless in the season opener.
Lowry wasn’t guaranteed to be Miami’s starting point guard out of training camp after the addition of Josh Richardson. Richardson missed the first few games of the season with a foot injury, though there’s a chance he’ll return tonight when the Heat visit the Bucks. Richardson may be limited initially, but he does figure to eat into Lowry’s playing time once he returns.
Even when he plays, Lowry is just not involved offensively. His 17.1% usage last season was among the lowest marks of his career, and he’s seen that number dip even further to just 8.8% this season. That’s quite easily the lowest usage of any Miami player to have set foot on the floor this season.
Lowry only attempted 6 shots on Saturday night in a game Jimmy Butler and Kevin Love both missed. It’s hard to imagine his usage suddenly skyrocketing tonight with Butler back. Even in the game in which he scored 13 points, Lowry still only attempted 7 shots from the field.
