SGP Predictions for Mavericks-Spurs

sportsbookreview.com

25 October 2023

Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs will host Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks, and betting analyst Jon Metler has created an NBA same-game parlay for Wednesday's game using the latest NBA odds.

Happy Victor Wembanyama Day to all those who celebrate!

This is usually where I go into full fun police mode and recommend three Under bets, and people stop reading what I have to say. But in a shocking turn of events, I actually think you have an opportunity here with Wembanyama to not only play the Overs but also alternate Overs.

Here's the thing with Wembanyama: we're all trying to figure out where these props should be trading for the first time, so there's a chance we get all three wrong. But as a parlay, that's only one unit lost.

There's also a chance the sportsbooks missed the mark on where these numbers should be trading, and from what we have seen from Wembanyama so far in preseason, our best NBA betting sites might have missed by a wide margin.

For this reason, I think it makes sense to go after Wembanyama with a parlay of alternate Overs, adopting a boom-or-bust mentality because I think that's how his props will play out on Wednesday.

Here are our Victor Wembanyama parlay picks for Wednesday (odds via FanDuel).

Victor Wembanyama parlay picks

Bet $5, Get $200 + 3 Months of NBA League Pass

Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook

NBA parlay predictions: Mavericks vs. Spurs

Victor Wembanyama 20-plus points vs. Mavericks (+135 via FanDuel)

There's steam, and then there is what we have seen on the points prop for Wembanyama on Wednesday. His total opened at 14.5 and has since been bet up to as high as 18.5 points. Usually, this is where I would tell you that you missed the number and you will have to look for a bet elsewhere, but this is different with Wembanyama.

It's steaming so hard because our best sports betting sites are trading his props for the first time, and the market really thinks they missed the mark here, and I agree.

Wembanyama is projected to have 19.1 points on Wednesday against the Mavericks, so while we could attack the Over 17.5 points, I'm going after the alternate total of 20-plus points because we have a probability gap on this number as well. Based on our projection, we can price Wembanyama at +120 to score 20-plus points, but we can grab it at +135 via FanDuel.

Victor Wembanyama 8-plus rebounds vs. Mavericks (+120 via FanDuel)

The points prop is drawing the most attention in the market, but it's the rebounding prop where we are seeing the biggest probability gap in Wembanyama's odds. Get out your ladders because you might want to attack Wembanyama's rebounding prop from that angle as well.

Wembanyama is projected to have 8.9 rebounds on Wednesday against the Mavericks, which is well above his total of 6.5 and allows us to price the alternate Over of 8-plus rebounds at -173, but it's trading at +120 on FanDuel.

There's a chance the projection is wrong because it does feel like a big whiff by our best sportsbooks here, and if we were talking about a LeBron James prop, that's the side I would lean toward. However, with Wembanyama being traded in the market for the first time, there is a chance the sportsbook's number is way off.

Victor Wembanyama 2-plus made 3-pointers vs. Mavericks (+130 via FanDuel)

In the NBA, there is an emphasis on players shooting more 3-pointers, and coaches are setting targets for how many they want to see taken by individual players. Last season in the EuroLeague, Wembanyama averaged just over five attempts per game, and that volume will be encouraged in the NBA.

Honestly, they are probably asking him to shoot even more. You could see it in preseason as Wembanyama attempted 5.5 triples per game while only playing around 20 minutes per game.

If we're going alternate Over on his points prop, we're going to need some help from beyond the arc to get there, so this bet correlates well with the other leg we put in our same-game parlay, and I think you're getting a fair price at +130 for Wembanyama to have 2-plus made threes.

NBA player prop picks made 10/25/2023 at 12:15 p.m. ET