UFC Fight Night: Jim Miller vs. Gabriel Benitez Betting Analysis

This weekend on the UFC schedule has a UFC Fight Night event in the APEX to kick off a wild beginning to 2024. One of the fan favorites set to step into the octagon this weekend is UFC veteran Jim Miller, as he prepares to take on a tough Gabriel Benitez. 

Continue reading this for the official Miller vs. Benitez betting analysis and prediction ahead of making any UFC bets on this weekend’s card. For more insights into sports betting and odds, read our BetUS Review.

Miller vs. Benitez Information

Jim Miller vs Gabriel Benitez

Location of the game: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Date & Time: January 13, 2024. 7 PM ET main card start

How to Watch: ESPN+

Last Fight Record

Miller is coming off a 23-second KO over Jesse Butler last June.

Benitez is making his return to the octagon for the first time since August of 2022 when he beat Charlie Ontiveros via first-round TKO. 

Miller vs. Benitez Betting Analysis

Jim Miller

Miller is an American mixed martial artist with a professional MMA record of 36-17 with 7 TKO/KO wins and an impressive 19 total submissions. At 40 years old, he currently holds the UFC record for most bouts, total wins, and wins in the lightweight division–the historically most competitive division in the UFC.

Miller is listed at 5’8” and has a 71” reach fighting out of the southpaw stance. Over his record-setting 42 total UFC bouts, he has averages of 2.86 significant strikes landed and 3.08 absorbed per minute. He does his best work on the ground with 1.56 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.8 submission attempts on average.

Gabriel Benitez

Benitez is a Mexican mixed martial artist with a professional record of 23-10, including 9 TKO/KO victories and 10 submissions at the age of 35. He’s a long-time member of the American Kickboxing Academy gym, learning from legends like Cain Velasquez, Daniel Cormier, and Khabib Nurmagomedov. He’s a seasoned veteran of the sport, winning titles in 4 different promotions before starting at the UFC.

Benitez is also a 5’8” southpaw with a 71” reach, literally equal to his opponent this weekend. In the UFC, he averages 4.79 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing 4.05 per minute as well. He also has an impressive 65% striking defense and a 1.1 submission average per 15 minutes.

Updates

No injuries have been reported to the UFC or ESPN.

Miller vs. Benitez Betting Preview

Following the Miller vs. Benitez betting analysis, it’s time to preview the betting lines and talk about what both of these men show on film. Then we can determine who has the upper hand and how this fight might play out due to the clash of styles of both.

According to the UFC odds for this weekend, Miller is coming in as the -140 betting favorite over the +120 Benitez. This fight is also pretty heavily favored to end inside the scheduled 15 minutes; you can get that line at -275.

If you look at this matchup technically, it’s a treat to watch the careers of both men. Miller has 42 UFC fights. 42. That is unheard of and he has fought pretty much every notable lightweight in the last decade, excluding a couple.

Miller has crafty techniques like his inside leg kick timed perfectly to sweep someone’s leg, and his ability to isolate a limb on an opponent is so impressive.

Benitez is a tough dude who will look to pressure Miller from the start and land heavy kicks to the legs and body, setting up blitzes with his hands. He also has a great high-elbow guillotine choke that he looks to lock up at any chance he gets.

A win from either man sets up an upcoming UFC fight probably at the historic UFC 300. If Miller can compete at that event, he will be able to say he fought at UFC 100, 200, and 300. 

Miller vs. Benitez Betting Prediction

After careful consideration, breaking down the Miller vs. Benitez betting analysis, and previewing this fight both technically and by the betting lines, the official prediction is that Jim Miller will get his hand raised.

Getting him at around -140 is too good to risk a prop bet on a submission or TKO, but don’t be surprised if he finishes Benitez. Benitez hasn’t competed in about a year and a half, and he tends to make mistakes in the chaos that he brings.

Miller has a lot of things going for him right now. He is coming off a win that was clean living for a 40-year-old man fighting in a cage, got that done in less than 30 seconds. Also, he has this new trust in his power and that leads to confidence. Out of his 7 career TKO/KO wins, three have come in the last two years. 

Benitez has almost been caught in arm bars and leg locks from careless wrestling a few times; when Miller gets people in those positions, he finishes the fight. This is by far the most underrated bout on the UFC fight schedule this weekend.

• Pick: Miller by submission -140.

If you love sports and want more sports betting information@InsidersBetDigfree betting picks.