Nathan Kelly vs. Damion Nelson Betting Analysis and Prediction

With the PFL Playoffs back on the MMA schedule, let’s look outside of the women’s featherweight and men’s heavyweight semifinal bouts at this interesting matchup between Nathan Kelly and Damion Nelson. These two have earned the opportunity to fight for this organization on a big event. Potentially securing a contract to participate in the 2024 regular season.

Read more for the complete betting analysis and official Nathan Kelly vs Damion Nelson prediction before making your betting picks this week.

Nathan Kelly vs Damion Nelson

Location of the game: The Theater at Madison Square Garden, New York, NY.

Date and Time: Friday, August 18. 9:00 PM ET

How to Watch: ESPN+

Kelly is coming off a first-round submission victory over Zachary Hicks in the PFL Challenger Series last March. 

Nelson will be looking to bounce back from a tough split decision loss in CFFC in June. 

Kelly is a 26-year-old Irish martial artist with a professional MMA record of 7-2 with three TKOs and three submissions. He trains out of the famous SBG Ireland gym, where Conor McGregor grew into the star he is today. Kelly has two fights under the PFL banner dating back to last year’s playoff card and this year’s Challenger Series–both appearances resulting in a first-round submission win. 

Kelly is 5’8″ and only has a 65″ reach and a 39″ leg reach. These are pretty short limbs for someone at his height. And it’s surprising how well he can long up submissions and touch his opponent’s chin at such a consistent rate. 

Nelson is a featherweight prospect that trains heavily with Aljamain Sterling at the Serra-Longo Fight Team gym–one of the most famous gyms in MMA.

He is only 4-3 in his professional MMA career, but he seems to be much more talented than what that record portrays. He will have a size advantage in the cage with a height of 5’9″ and a longer reach than Kelly. 

No injuries have been reported to the PFL. 

There really isn’t much information on either of these fighters to make the perfect Nathan Kelly vs Damion Nelson prediction, but in these situations, you need to take the extra time to look through the betting lines to see what the best bet is.

According to MMA odds, Kelly is coming in as the big -300 betting favorite over the +250 Nelson making his PFL debut. The over 1.5 round total is favored at -185, but it’s actually -160 for this fight to end inside the distance. You can get Kelly at -140 to win inside the distance, and Nelson is +850 to do the same. 

From a technical standpoint, Kelly has shown the most skills in past fights and clearly has the ability to showcase some impressive work in the PFL SmartCage. Nelson doesn’t have much film to break down, but it’s pretty clear that Kelly has the advantage this week.

Making MMA picks for fights that have two unknown prospects with less than ten fights is a very difficult thing to do. You have to trust your eyes and the sportsbook odds for this fight. 

• The official Nathan Kelly vs Damion Nelson prediction is that Kelly will get the job done inside the distance.

You can get that at -140 odds, along with hitting the under 1.5 round total at +155. This has a chance to be a short night and an impressive performance for the highly-skilled Irishman.

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