UFC Vegas 77: Azaitar vs Prado Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks

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13 July 2023

UFC Vegas 77: Azaitar vs Prado Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks

The UFC Vegas 77 main card is filled with several exciting matchups that will dazzle MMA enthusiasts on Saturday, July 15. One of the more intriguing bouts of the night sees former Brave CF Lightweight Champion Ottman Azaitar taking on up-and-coming prospect Francisco Prado in a three-round fight.

Both Azaitar and Prado are unranked when it comes to the UFC’s lightweight division rankings. They’ve both shown flashes of potential in the past, leaving time to tell if either fighter is capable of a performance this weekend that lands them a top-15 spot when the dust clears.

Betting News has put together an Azaitar vs. Prado preview, ranging from each fighter’s history to the latest betting odds (via BetOnline) and best bets for the UFC Vegas 77 main card clash.

Azaitar vs Prado— Tale of the Tape

Ottman Azaitar — Francisco Prado

Record: 13-1 — 11-1
Height: 5’8” — 5’10”
Reach: 71” — 69”
Weight: 155lbs — 155lbs
Age: 33 — 21
Fighting Stance: Switch — Orthodox
Knockouts: 10 — 5

UFC Vegas 77: Azaitar vs Prado Odds (as of Thursday, July 13 at 10:36 a.m.)

Moneyline

Ottman Azaitar -116
Francisco Prado -104

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

Round Total

Over 1.5 Rounds (+150)
Under 1.5 Rounds (-180)

Azaitar vs Prado Fighter History

BetOnline’s Azaitar vs Prado odds paint it as a fight that could go either way. Azaitar is the slim favorite at -116 odds, which carries an implied win probability of just 53.7% at UFC Vegas 77.

Azaitar had a thrilling start to his MMA career, racking up an 11-0 record as he finished opponents all across the globe. Eventually, more and more people took notice of his talents and the German combatant finally joined the UFC in 2019.

Azaitar’s run couldn’t have started off better, scoring back-to-back first-round knockout wins over Teemu Packalen and Khama Worthy. Unfortunately, he ran into some trouble when he was released (before later being rehired) for a breach of COVID-19 protocols.

The 33-year-old made his octagon return at UFC 281 after a two-year absence. The bout didn’t go the way he wanted as Azaitar was knocked out by one of Matt Frevola’s punches, leaving the form in need of a rebound showing this weekend.

Funny enough, Prado can somewhat relate to his opponent’s experience. The Argentinian fighter also experienced a perfect start to his MMA career, racking up 11 consecutive victories across various promotions.

Much to his dismay, Prado also tasted his first-ever loss in his most recent outing. The fight was his UFC back in February, which saw him come up short against Jamie Mullarkey via unanimous decision.

Although Prado has the height and youth advantage in this matchup, that’s about all he has going for him statistically. Azaitar lands more significant strikes per minute (6.97 vs. 1.87) with better accuracy (54% vs. 37%), and has much better takedown defense, too (100% vs. 25%).

UFC Vegas 77 Betting Trends and Markets for Azaitar vs Prado

With the odds being as close as they are, there’s nothing wrong with a moneyline bet for the Azaitar vs Prado matchup. Having said that, BetOnline has more markets that indicate how the UFC Vegas 77 main card fight may go.

For instance, the sportsbook predicts that this will be a short fight, favoring that it won’t go the distance at -450 odds. In fact, the matchup is favored to last less than 1.5 rounds at -180. A shorter fight shouldn’t come as that much of a surprise, though, considering how both Azaitar and Prado have only gone the distance once each.

Keeping that in mind, Prado is favored to win the fight by KO/TKO at +150 odds. He currently holds five knockout victories to his name and has KO’d two of his last three opponents.

Azaitar’s most likely method of victory is also winning by KO/TKO, albeit at +185 odds instead. Of his 13 career victories, 10 have come by some form of knockout. Furthermore, the Bulldozer knocked out five consecutive opponents before suffering his first-ever loss.

For those looking for a more exact outcome, Prado is favored to win by first-round knockout at +350. For reference, four of his five previous KO/TKO wins occurred in the opening frame.

Azaitar vs Prado UFC Vegas 77 Fight Prediction

In a scrap that’ll likely go either way, I’m taking Azaitar to pick up the win. For starters, he’s already proven that he can win at the UFC level, winning twice by knockout. Meanwhile, Prado has yet to prove that he can handle the best that the sport has to offer. It’s going to be a hard-hitting contest, but Azaitar’s striking skills will lead to victory.

Taking Azaitar at -116 moneyline odds is a viable betting option, however, I’m taking him to win by KO/TKO at +185 instead. Again, he already has two knockout victories in the UFC and KO/TKO’d five straight opponents before his last outing. After Prado was outstruck 59-28 in his debut, I don’t see him being able to handle Azaitar’s barrage this weekend.