Week 11 Player Props

Prop bet #1: Hunter hits his target

It’s been quite an implosion for the Colorado Buffaloes following a hot start in which Deion “Coach Prime” Sanders was the talk of the college football world. Despite the ups and downs, one thing has mostly remained constant throughout the year — two-way star Travis Hunter is one of the best players in the country.

I’m focusing on his receiving yardage prop this Saturday, which is set at 64.5 with -120 odds to the Over. FanDuel lists an alternative receiving yardage prop where there is plus money (+122) on Hunter eclipsing the 70-yard plateau, and that has caught my eye.

The Buffaloes face the Arizona Wildcats in Week 11. Jedd Fisch’s team has a solid defense this season, but they’re being talked about as an elite unit in some handicapping circles when the numbers simply don’t back it up.

While DC Johnny Nansen has led a remarkable turnaround this year, the Wildcats check in at 62nd in EPA per play and 97th in success rate defensively — much better than a year ago, but still below Colorado’s marks of 53rd in EPA per play and 49th in success rate offensively.

If we isolate and look just at pass defense, the Wildcats rank just 107th in Pro Football Focus' pass coverage metric.

Hunter has played in five full games this season. If we throw out the Colorado State game where he left early after being injured on a dirty hit, he’s averaged 9.6 targets per game. That’s a substantial volume, and Hunter is too talented of a player not to be productive over that big of a workload.

The two-way star has 70+ receiving yards in four of those five games, so this prop should be listed with minus odds to the Over instead of the plus money currently being offered. Hunter is averaging 87.4 receiving yards per game in that span and that seems to be a more accurate reflection of his worth than what sportsbooks are offering.

Travis Hunter prop: 70+ receiving yards (+122 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Buying low on Morton

It’s been a bumpy ride in Lubbock this season as the Texas Tech Red Raiders have fallen well short of preseason expectations.

They’ve also dealt with numerous injuries in the quarterback room. Starting quarterback Tyler Shough was knocked out for the year early on with a fractured fibula, so in stepped Behren Morton, who proceeded to injure his shoulder to the point where he couldn’t throw in practice. That led to true freshman Jake Strong starting two games, tossing six interceptions to just two touchdowns while posting a gruesome 2.8 AY/A.

Hopefully, all of that trouble is in the rearview as the team returned from a much-needed bye week with a healthy Morton under center against TCU in Week 10. The offense managed 35 points on 428 total yards and 5.5 yards per play while throwing for 282 yards in a balanced effort.

Morton’s prop is set down at 220.5 for Week 11 and that’s simply too low as it’s not accurately accounting for the fact that Morton played most of his games this season with an injured shoulder that essentially rendered him a wild cat quarterback. He had a grade-3 AC joint sprain and didn’t resume throwing in practice until last week before the TCU game, where it was evident his talented arm was more healthy.

Morton gets a nice matchup in Week 11 against a Kansas Jayhawks team that ranks just 122nd in passing success rate defensively. This game is expected to turn into a shootout with a total of 62.5, and the Red Raiders will need to move the ball consistently to keep pace with Kansas’ potent offense.

This forecasts as a productive outing for Morton on Saturday, leading an uptempo Zach Kittley system that typically results in some big-time production at the quarterback position. We haven’t been able to witness that this season in Lubbock but I believe the circumstances surrounding the quarterback room are to blame and will be looking for a return to normalcy on Saturday.

Behren Morton prop: Over 220.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Stanford standout

The Stanford Cardinal have been feisty in Year 1 under Troy Taylor. They were supposed to be one of the worst teams in the country heading into the year but have shown surprising signs of life recently as one of 2023’s agents of chaos.

First came the insane 46-43 comeback win at Colorado, and recently they played a mighty Washington Huskies team close in a 42-33 defeat before turning around next week for a 10-7 upset of Washington State.

The brightest star of the show has been wide receiver Elic Ayomanor, a wide receiver who had his breakout game with 13 receptions for 294 yards and three touchdowns in the Colorado win while single-handedly embarrassing another player on this list — Travis Hunter.

It doesn’t look like that breakout game was a flash in the pan as he’s proceeded to average seven receptions for 96.3 receiving yards across his last three games. The sophomore from Canada looks like the real deal and I’m going to take the Over on his receiving yardage prop, which is set at 71.5 for Week 11.

He’s eclipsed that number in three of his last four games with an average of 146.8 receiving yards. The lone game he didn’t hit his prop came last week against Washington State, where Taylor opted for a run-heavy approach to take advantage of the Cougars’ weakness defensively.

I don’t see that being the game plan again this week when he faces an Oregon State Beavers defense that I don’t fully trust. The Beavers are allowing just 20.9 points per game but have also faced a soft level of opposition.

I still have question marks about the secondary after they lost two pro-level defensive backs from last year’s terrific squad, so I expect to see Taylor test the corners repeatedly with shots to his emerging star receiver.

Elic Ayomanor prop: Over 71.5 receiving yards (-115 at FanDuel)