Wolves vs Newcastle Odds & Picks

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27 October 2023

Newcastle will pose a stiff test for Wolves, but our EPL picks think one of the Magpies' men will pose an even stiffer challenge for the referees.

Saturday’s final Premier League game sees Wolves vs. Newcastle in a match which should offer plenty of opportunity. Newcastle, the EPL odds favorites, entered this gameweek sixth in the Premier League with Wolves down in 12th. In truth, Wolves are probably exceeding expectations with many tabbing them to be in the mix for relegation.

Can Wolves continue to show why they deserve to stay in the Premier League, or will Newcastle continue their attempts to crack the top four once again? Don’t miss our Wolves vs Newcastle betting picks and predictions for October 28 to find out.

Wolves vs Newcastle best odds

EPL predictions for Wolves vs Newcastle

Both of these teams have impressed at times this season. Wolves, in particular, have done exceptionally well to enter this weekend 12th in the Premier League. With a number of big names leaving in the summer, including captain Ruben Neves, and a managerial change, it was expected that they’d be well in the running to be relegated, but they’re already seven points clear of the relegation zone and a full 10 points better off than last-place Sheffield United.

Newcastle came into the weekend sat in sixth, lower than last season’s fourth-placed finish, but they have looked very good at times, and had some of the most memorable results in recent years, thinking of that victory over PSG in the Champions League in particular. This is going to be a very tough test for Wolves, but both clubs are in good form. The home side have eight points in their last four games, while Newcastle have won four of their last five and tied the other.

Our best bet for Wolves vs. Newcastle focuses on one of Newcastle’s star men this season, English forward Anthony Gordon. Gordon’s signing was met with surprise, both at the fee and that Newcastle would want a player that some deemed not good enough. After a rocky first season, the 22-year old has shown his class this season, scoring three and assisting two more in eight Premier League appearances. He’s generally been deployed on the left flank, and his hard work and direct style have really helped the team. He’s played so well that he’s surely set for international recognition with the full England side very soon.

However, one area of Gordon’s game that has been poor has been his disciplinary record. In eight Premier League games, one of which was from the bench, he’s been booked five times and has already had a suspension. That’s frankly outrageous and it’s going to cause an issue for his club if it continues.

He tackles on average 1.9 times per game and gives up 1.1 fouls per game, but the issue for Gordon is that a number of his bookings have come from cynical fouls. Wolves are a tough team to break down and I could easily see Gordon becoming frustrated if Newcastle don’t get off to a strong start.

Given Gordon’s record this season, I was staggered to see that you could get +300 on the wideman to get booked. If you take the +300 odds that implies just a 25% chance that Gordon gets booked, which seems wildly wrong when you consider that he’s been booked in five of eight games so far this season. If you look around at different sportsbooks you’ll see some far lower prices, which makes me think that the +300 available here on a Gordon booking is a real value play.

My best bet: Anthony Gordon to get booked (+300 at TonyBet)

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Wolves vs Newcastle same-game parlay

Anthony Gordon to get booked

Newcastle to win

Over 23.5 shots

For starters, Gordon is a great talent, but a temperamental one who can have fits of petulance or dirty play when he loses his head, which happens far too often.

Next up, we’re backing Newcastle to win. They’ve scored at least two goals in each of their past four Premier League games and have been on a good run following a slow start to the season. With that in mind, I think it’s quite likely that they win this one.

Finally, we’re going to be taking Over 23.5 shots for both teams combined in the game. These are just shots, not shots on target, and if you look at the numbers, you can see that 23.5 is well below the average for both teams combined. Wolves have averaged 13 shots per game with Newcastle at 14.1, so with those numbers, we should have a very good chance at landing the Over.

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Wolves vs Newcastle side and Over/Under analysis

One of the legs of our Wolves vs. Newcastle SGP is for Newcastle to win, so it won’t surprise you that I’m backing them on the moneyline in a single too. You’re getting odds of -128, which I think is good value for a team with this quality who will be desperate to bounce back after a Champions League loss on Wednesday. It was very nearly my best bet for the game, but I think that an Anthony Gordon card offers great value. You can get Wolves at +315 or the draw at +28- but neither appeal to me.

In terms of total goals, the market has Over 2.5 goals as the -130 favorite with Under coming in at +105. Under 2.5 goals has landed in five of the past six games between these two clubs at Molineux in all competitions, but I’d take the Over.

Three of Wolves’ four home games this season have seen three or more goals while the previous three of Newcastle’s road trips have hit that mark too. In fact, there have been a combined 16 goals in Newcastle’s previous three away games.