F1 British Grand Prix picks, odds, podium predictions: Who will stand out at Silverstone?

The list of things Max Verstappen has yet to accomplish in Formula One is becoming shorter as the Dutch driver is in the midst of a second straight dominant season on his way to a third straight championship. However, he has never won a British Grand Prix.

Of course this comes with a big asterisk. Verstappen has won at Silverstone Circuit, but the race wasn’t a British Grand Prix. He won the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix in 2020, when the pandemic-altered schedule resulted in two straight race weekends at the same venue.

Outside of that, Red Bull hasn’t won a true British Grand Prix since 2012. Verstappen is expected to change that this year. He is the betting favorite before every Formula One weekend and his odds are even shorter this weekend at -350 (2-to-7) on BetMGM.

British Grand Prix odds

Carlos Sainz Jr. won here last year after taking pole position in a wet qualifying session. Verstappen led the race but settled for seventh after suffering some damage. There could be a wet qualifying again this year. The forecast has a decent chance of rain on both Saturday and Sunday. After how the wet Saturday in Austria unfolded last week, most F1 fans would be happy to see more of that.

It has been easy to focus on the dominance of Verstappen and Red Bull at the front, but predicting which team will be second-best in a weekend has been difficult. In Austria last week, Ferrari was the only other team to get on the podium (including the sprint race) and had both drivers ahead of both Mercedes in the grand prix. Mercedes had three podiums in the previous two races. Aston Martin’s Fernando Alonso is still third, behind both Red Bulls, in the standings.

This week, the odds have Hamilton, an eight-time winner of the British Grand Prix, behind both Red Bulls (of course) but ahead of Charles Leclerc and Alonso. Will that be how it plays out? For more on that, The Athletic’s F1 crew previewed the race and made podium predictions.

It’s easy to focus on the front, but is Red Bull’s dominance overshadowing the back-and-forth fight between Ferrari, Mercedes and Aston Martin?

Madeline Coleman: My very blunt response is yes. We shouldn’t ignore how dominant Max Verstappen and Red Bull have been because frankly, no one on the grid is operating at his level. That being said, too many people are writing off this season when there are captivating battles happening further down the grid, such as Ferrari-Mercedes-Aston Martin or whether Alpine makes a bigger comeback.

Luke Smith: Absolutely. This has been one of the most interesting and entertaining scraps of the season, the advantage swinging back and forth from race-to-race. Each track has suited teams differently, and the upgrade packages they have been bringing have been making the difference. If you took Red Bull – well, Verstappen – out of the equation, then it’s a really close battle. I’m expecting Mercedes to be the team to beat this weekend given the track layout and a new front wing on the way.

Jeff Gluck: Easily, yes. With Mercedes being P2 but only three points ahead of Aston Martin, imagine what Aston could be doing if Lance Stroll could keep pace with Fernando Alonso. Stroll has only one top-five finish this year and Alonso has eight…ouch! Anyway, you’d also have to wonder how close it would be if Ferrari (24 points behind Mercedes) could get out of its own way sometimes. But as long as Red Bull continues to suck all the air out of the room, this battle probably won’t get as much attention as it deserves.

Sergio Pérez is -200 (1-to-2) to finish second to Max Verstappen in the drivers’ championship. He’s 17 points ahead of Fernando Alonso and 42 ahead of Lewis Hamilton. Is there any reason to think Pérez won’t get second?

Coleman: Even though the RB19 is strong, I don’t think Pérez’s second-place status is a done deal given how much of the season is left. It’ll boil down to if he can stay in his early-season form. If not, and he makes mistakes (he is human), it’ll come down to how he’ll handle them. Missing out on Q3 as long as he did is hard to ignore, even if he made up decent track positions.

Smith: So long as he has turned the corner from his slump from Monaco through to Canada, then Pérez should be good for P2. Even with the odd slip-up, I’d expect the Mercedes/Aston Martin/Ferrari battle to cause their drivers to take points off each other. Pérez is comfortably in the quickest car, meaning second place at each race really should be the minimum expectation. Austria was an encouraging fightback that should help him reset heading into the second half of the season.

Gluck: I don’t see a reason. You’d have to assume his recent string of disappointing qualifying performances is something that will be remedied. If he returns to early-season form where he can contend with Verstappen, then Alonso won’t be fast enough to catch him.

Hamilton has eight wins at Silverstone. Will he get another one there in his career?

Coleman: Yes. Retirement doesn’t seem to be coming any time soon for Hamilton, and recent races have shown Mercedes appears to be heading in the right direction with its car (though he was fairly vocal about how it felt in Austria). To win a race, it takes driver talent and a good car.

Smith: I’m going to say yes. Hamilton is showing no signs of wanting to stop racing anytime soon, making clear on Thursday at Silverstone that a new contract with Mercedes is really a formality. Mercedes is back on the right path with its car development, and Hamilton always goes well around Silverstone – winning eight times at a single circuit is crazy! It might be another year or two, but I’d expect Lewis to be back on the top step on home soil before his F1 career is out.

Gluck: It feels doubtful at this point. Are we assuming that next year, someone has made enough gains to catch Red Bull – and that someone is Mercedes? That’s sort of a mind-bending reach at this point, but mainly because we seem to be right in the midst of a Red Bull-dominant era. And even if Mercedes does emerge as a consistent victor again, who’s to say it won’t be George Russell doing much of the winning? The clock is ticking for Hamilton, and it would be a shame if Mercedes can’t get itself righted before his time runs out.

Verstappen is an even bigger favorite (-350, 2-to-7) than recent weeks. What about this track should suit him well?

Coleman: I love answering this on media day because of what happened during the press conference, which Luke will address. It’s a high-speed track with plenty of straights, something that suits the RB19.

Smith: To quote one other driver speaking off-mic in the press conference when someone was asked what bits of the track should suit the Red Bull car: “The straights and the corners” – ie, all of it. Genuinely though, the high-speed layout at Silverstone should really work to the strengths of the RB19. Verstappen’s supreme confidence will come into its own around here.

Gluck: Silverstone is a flowing track with high-speed corners, which could quickly wear out a driver’s tires if they’re not careful. But Red Bull seems to be in a class of its own when it comes to tire degradation. So if that’s the case again, Verstappen should be able to set sail as he typically does. It’s worth noting he hasn’t lost a race since April, so no wonder the odds are what they are.

Prediction time: What do you think will be the podium at Silverstone?

Coleman: Verstappen, Sainz, Russell

Smith: Verstappen, Pérez, Hamilton

Gluck: Verstappen, Leclerc, Hamilton