Friday July 14th horse racing betting tips: Picks for Newmarket
Ed Quigley aka 'Longshot Ted' serves up his best bets for the Friday of Newmarket's July Festival.
- Newmarket 3.00 - Live Your Dream - bet with Tote
- Newmarket 3.35 - Prosperous Voyage e/w - bet with William Hill
- Newmarket 5.20 - Conquistador - bet with bet365
LIVE YOU DREAM has the burden of top weight and a BHA Rating of 104, but can prove he deserves that lofty status by landing this Handicap over 1m6f. The 6-year-old has had a bit of a stop-start career plagued by injury, but won this race two years ago, and has every chance of getting the job done once again.
The gelding has made a pleasing comeback this season after a 609 day absence, chasing home a progressive sort at Haydock on reappearance, and then running a belter to finish third in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at the Royal Meeting, staying on nicely in the closing stages. Stepping back up in distance can see the Saeed bin Suroor runner right back to his best, and a returning back to the July course, there is a sense of 'been there and done it.' Kevin Stott takes the ride, and the combination can prove a tough nut to crack here.
This year's Falmouth looks a belter, with the added spice of Nashwa in the line-up. The French Oaks and Nassau Stakes winner has been supplemented for this assignment, and it will be fascinating to see how she gets on down in trip. However, I think the each-way play is last year's winner PROSPEROUS VOYAGE, who looks overpriced with William Buick in the saddle. The 4-year-old caused a mighty upset when turning over hotpot Inspiral 12 months ago.
She did that arriving on the back of a below-par effort at Royal Ascot when down the field in the Coronation Stakes. Her preparation this time around has been a good one, as she followed up success in a Group 3 at Epsom with a very solid run to come third in the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes at this year's Royal Ascot. A return to this venue is a naturally a positive, and on her best form she is right in the shake-up here. There is every chance that the ground will be too fast for Pretty Polly winner Via Sistina to show her best form, and I would like to back the Ralph Beckett representative instead.
George Boughey has his string in great form at present, and the consistent CONQUISTADOR can take advantage of the drop into calmer waters here. The gelding ran a stormer at Royal Ascot last time out despite failing to settle throughout the early exchanges. He finished third in an ultra competitive Handicap, and this assignment on paper looks significantly easier. Will Buick has been riding at the peak of his powers in recent times, operating at a 32% strike-rate for July. There should be plenty of pace on, and that should this son of U S Navy Flag who can come flying home with a late rattle. Off an unchanged mark of 86 Conquistador merits plenty of respect.
Ed will be back on Saturday with his best wagers for July Cup Day at Newmarket.
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