Indiana State vs. Belmont prediction and odds for Missouri Valley Conference quarterfinals

Indiana State and Belmont meet in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament quarterfinals in a rematch of a thrilling game last week.

Belmont rallied in the final two minutes, erasing a five point deficit, to win on two free throws in the final seconds against Indiana State at home on Feb. 22. Now the Sycamores will get a chance at revenge in a win-or-go home scenario in the MVC Tournament.

Who has the edge in the rematch?

Let’s break it down:

Indiana State vs. Belmont odds, spread and total

Indiana State vs. Belmont prediction and pick

These are two high powered offenses, the prior meeting finished 89-88 with a total of 153.5, and the total is about the same here, and I’m inclined to go over once again.

These are not only two top four offenses in MVC play, they are the two fastest offenses in MVC play. While Indiana State has held teams to below 30% from beyond the arc in conference play, Belmont’s offense had little issue hoisting from the perimeter, canning 12-of-32 3s in the first meeting. When the Bears got inside, it was easy going as well, hitting on 60% of their two-point tries.

Meanwhile, Indiana State is tops in the conference in effective field goal percentage and at generating free throw attempts (which it drains at a 78% clip).

Both defenses are below league average in terms of generating turnovers, so I expect each offense to be rolling from the tip.

This game should be a thriller, and late free throws could push us over the total.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.