Blue Jays betting trends: Explaining Toronto’s trend of overs

The Toronto Blue Jays are currently top of the wild card standings. They went on a road trip last week and lost 3-5 on the road. The team is on verge of another series against an October-hopeful opponent.

FanGraphs’ Ben Clemens looks at how Teoscar Hernandez is taking fewer first-pitch swings now compared to the start of this year.

Teoscar's first-pitch swing rate has taken a considerable tumble. Hernandez's walk rate and strikeout rate have trended positively in the past two months.

Hernandez was aggressive before May 31, but since then he's become more selective. His .927 OPS since June 1 is thanks in part to improved patience at the outset of his at-bats.

The Blue Jays had one of the best offences in baseball last season. Their over/under record is fifth in the majors. They have been among the friendliest clubs to over bettors this season, which is surprising, given their production and wRC+.

Toronto's pitching staff hasn't kept up with the times. The Blue Jays were a top-five team by league-adjusted ERA last year, but are now in the middle of the pack.

The Blue Jays are three games clear of all teams outside the playoff window. They are in the top wild card spot, but they haven't fared well against their closest competitors.

The Blue Jays have a 12-22 record and a minus-14 run differential against teams that are three games or fewer behind them. This weekend's series against the Guardians will be crucial.