Monday Night Football Betting Preview Arizona Cardinals San Francisco 49ers

Week 11 on the NFL calendar concludes in Mexico tonight, as the 49ers face the shorthanded Cardinals on Monday Night Football.

Arizona is expected to be without starting QB Kyler Murray for the second straight week due to a hamstring injury, opening the door for another Colt McCoy start.

The news of McCoy under centre has caused a major line move ahead of MNF, as the Cardinals have fallen from 8-point underdogs to +10 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Teams: San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals
Line: 49ers -10
Total: 42.5

San Francisco hasn't exactly been a cover machine this season, posting a 4-5 record against the spread. They’re 3-4 ATS as a favorite, while historically Kyle Shanahan and Co. have struggled to cover big numbers - more on that later.

Arizona Cardinals Betting Analysis

As for Arizona, the team looked as good as they have all season with McCoy running the offence last week. He led the Cardinals to a 27-17 win over the defending champion Rams, throwing for 238 yards and a TD as a 3.5-point underdog.

Despite being a backup, he’s got plenty of experience at the helm of this squad, posting a 3-1 record as a starter with the Cardinals over the past two years.

One of those starts was against this same 49ers team in 2021, and it resulted in a 31-17 Arizona victory in San Francisco.

The Cards came into that contest as a 5.5-point underdog, but McCoy shredded the San Fran defence. He completed 22 of 26 passes for 249 yards and a score, and did so without the services of number one receiver DeAndre Hopkins.

Like Murray, Hopkins has been nursing a hamstring injury this week, but he is expected to play tonight. 

The Cardinals have massive splits with and without Hopkins on the field during his Arizona tenure. They average just 18 points per game when he sits, and 27 points per outing when he suits up. 

Hopkins hauled in 10 catches for 98 yards against LA in Week 10, marking his third double-digit reception total over the past four weeks.

Arizona player props are off the board as of Monday morning, but keep your eye out for Hopkins props leading up to kickoff. The 49ers have already allowed three 100+ receiving yard performances this season, and two others of 98 and 97 yards.

Defensively, the Cardinals will have their hands full. San Francisco is full of explosive playmakers, and Arizona is vulnerable after the catch. They allow the most YAC per game and the most YAC per reception in the NFL.

San Francisco 49ers Betting Analysis

Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk. It sounds like the makings of an All-Pro team, when in fact it’s just the skill position players at Jimmy Garoppolo’s disposal.
With a group as talented as this, it’s no surprise the Niners are a top-four Super Bowl contender despite their underwhelming 5-4 record.

When this offence is clicking they’re nearly impossible to stop, as long as Jimmy G can protect the football. San Fran is 5-0 when Garoppolo doesn’t throw an interception this season, but 0-4 when he tosses at least one pick.

He’s posted a 13-to-3 TD-to-INT rate in five career games against the Cardinals, but boasts just a 3-2 record straight up.

Arizona’s defence has been underwhelming by most key metrics, however if there’s one area they’ve excelled at it’s forcing turnovers. The Cards rank fifth in takeaways, and have scored a league-high five defensive touchdowns already this season.

Best Bets

The news of Murray sitting has prompted a ton of 49ers money against the spread, but buyer beware.

McCoy is nowhere near as big of a downgrade as most people think, and Arizona has been an absolute cash cow for underdog bettors in the Kliff Kingsbury era..

The Cards are 22-11-1 ATS under Kingsbury as underdogs, and 4-1-1 against the spread when catching at least seven points. Arizona is 6-1-1 ATS versus San Francisco over the past five seasons, while both Shanahan and Garoppolo have been miserable as large favorites.

Shanahan teams have covered only four times in 14 games as a favorite of 7 or more points, and are 2-8-1 ATS in those instances with Jimmy G under centre.