New York Mets at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

The New York Mets (46-52) finish a 3-game series against the Boston Red Sox (52-47) on Sunday at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: tied 1-1

The Mets lost 8-6 to the Red Sox Saturday to give them 6 losses in their last 10 contests. New York is 17 1/2 games back of the Atlanta Braves atop the NL East and are 7 games back of the final NL Wild Card.

Red Sox OF Jarren Duran, 1B Triston Casas (2), SS Yu Chang, and DH Justin Turner all homered in Saturday’s win. Boston snapped a 3-game losing skid with the victory and is now 8 1/2 games behind the Baltimore Orioles for 1st place in the AL East.

Mets at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Carlos Carrasco vs. LHP Brennan Bernardino

Carrasco (3-3, 5.35 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 through 65 2/3 IP.

• Has walked 2 or more batters in 10 of his first 13 starts
• Has given up at least 1 HR in 11 of his 13 starts

Bernardino (1-0, 2.48 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 32 2/3 IP.

• Has yet to pitch more than 2 innings in his first 3 starts
• Handed things off to RHP Nick Pivetta in his last 2 starts
• As a starter: 0-0, 1.69 ERA  (5 1/3 IP, 1 ER), 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K

Mets at Red Sox odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:03 a.m. ET.

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Mets at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 6, Mets 4

The RED SOX (-145) are my play in Sunday night’s matchup considering how both of these teams have performed recently. Boston has won 7 of the last 8 meetings overall with New York.

RED SOX -1.5 (+125) has decent value with the Mets rolling out Carrasco. Boston has defeated its opponent by multiple runs in 7 of its last 8 wins.

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OVER 9.5 (-115) is how I’d play the run total with Carrasco drawing another start for the Mets. Both of these teams are top 6 in ISO, top 7 in wOBA, and top 8 in wRC+ against right-handed pitching since the start of July (Pivetta will likely pitch the most innings for Boston on Sunday).

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