New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, picks and predictions

The New York Mets (40-46) will conclude a 3-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks (50-37) on Thursday at Chase Field. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 2-0

In Wednesday’s 2-1 victory over the Diamondbacks, the Mets scored both of their runs in the top of the 9th inning. New York is currently on a 4-game winning streak, though they remain 18 games back in the NL East race.

The Diamondbacks have now lost 3 straight games following Wednesday’s loss. Arizona is 4-6 in its last 10 contests and is only 1 1/2 games ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers atop the NL West.

Mets at Diamondbacks projected starters

RHP Carlos Carrasco vs. RHP Ryne Nelson

Carrasco (2-3, 5.94 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.57 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 53 innings.

• Has given up at least 1 HR in 10 of his 11 starts
• Has allowed multiple runs and walks in 9 starts

Nelson (5-4, 4.67 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 90 2/3 innings.

• Has struck out 5 or more batters in 4 consecutive starts
• In hislast 2 starts has allowed a combined 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 12 K in 14 1/3 IP

Mets at Diamondbacks odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:26 a.m. ET.

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Mets at Diamondbacks picks and predictions

Prediction

Diamondbacks 6, Mets 3

The Mets have won the 1st 2 games of the series, but I’ll back the DIAMONDBACKS (-130) to avoid the sweep on Thursday. Nelson has looked better in recent starts and Carrasco has mightily struggled this season.

DIAMONDBACKS -1.5 (+145) has solid value at the current odds with Carrasco pitching for the Mets. Arizona has won by multiple runs in each of its last 9 wins.

The Diamondbacks also have the 6th-best ISO (.181) and are tied for the 4th-best wOBA (.335). They also own the 8th-best wRC+ (107) against right-handed pitching this season.

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UNDER 10 (-105) is the pick in this game despite 2 inconsistent pitchers taking the mound. The Mets are 5-2-2 to the Under in their last 9 games overall, while the Diamondbacks are 6-1 to the Under in their last 7 overall.

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