Red Sox vs White Sox Prediction, Picks, Odds

Justin Turner has been red-hot and the Red Sox may have the advantage on the mound as Brayan Bello looks to continue his strong play of late against a disappointing White Sox lineup. We're breaking down this game and finding the best value play available.

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The Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox begin a three-game series at Guaranteed Rate Field on Friday night. The Red Sox are coming off back-to-back defeats against Minnesota and remain in the Midwest to battle the White Sox, who enjoyed a day off yesterday after falling to the Rangers on Wednesday.

MLB betting odds for this AL showdown opened with the Red Sox as slim -120 road favorites before shortening to -115. Here are my best free MLB betting picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. White Sox on June 23.

Red Sox vs White Sox odds

Red Sox vs White Sox predictions

The Boston Red Sox were shut out by the Twins last night but this is a lineup that has generally been very productive. Sure, they are a middle-of-the-pack squad in terms of Statcast analytics but they rank fourth in wOBA (.333), and sixth in OPS (.766).

The Chicago White Sox are just 27th in wOBA (.296) while ranking 26th in OPS (.681) and that number has dipped to .647 this month. 

Boston sends 24-year-old righthander Brayan Bello to the mound today. Bello had an ugly performance in his first start of the season but has pitched to a 2.86 ERA with a .227 OBA in 10 starts since. He has mediocre analytics and an expected ERA that sits at 4.33 but so does Chicago's starter Lucas Giolito who has a nearly identical xERA of 4.28. 

Giolito was one of the better pitchers in the AL between 2019 and 2021, but his play has fallen off since then. His strikeout rate of 24.5% this year is far below the 33.7% it topped out at 2020 and his hard-hit rate of 41.7% is significantly higher than the career-best 34.6% he pitched to in 2019. 

Chicago's situation is even worse in the bullpen with its relievers 26th in the majors in ERA (4.75) and 25th in WHIP (1.40). The Red Sox improved their bullpen in the offseason and that has helped them rank a respectable 13th in ERA (3.81) and 12th in WHIP (1.27).

There isn't much of a difference between the starting pitchers, and with the Red Sox boasting the better bullpen and the far more productive lineup they seem like a good bet at nearly a pick'em price. Unless you think home-field advantage and the extra day of rest are enough of a factor to back the White Sox, the visitors are the play here.

My best bet: Red Sox moneyline (-115 at bet365)

Red Sox vs White Sox same-game parlay

Red Sox moneyline (-115)

Brayan Bello Under 2.5 earned runs (-115)

Justin Turner Over 1.5 total bases (+115)

Since I'm backing the Red Sox to win, it makes sense to correlate that success with another quality start by Bello and another good night from red-hot slugger Justin Turner. 

Bello has allowed fewer than 2.5 earned runs in eight of his last nine starts and faces a struggling White Sox lineup plating just 3.33 runs per game this month.

Over the last two weeks, Turner is slashing .432/.500/.796 with four doubles and four dingers in 11 games. Expect him to get to starter Giolito and a vulnerable White Sox bullpen.

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Red Sox vs White Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The line opened with the Red Sox at -120 but has shortened to -115 as of 11 a.m. ET. 

The Red Sox are coming off consecutive losses to the Twins and were shut out 6-0 last night. They still have a significantly better record (39-37) than the White Sox (32-44) despite playing in a far superior division. 

The White Sox are coming off a day of rest and previously faced off against the Rangers in a series where they went 1-2.  

The Red Sox have gone 7-3 in Bello's last 10 starts and were -124 favorites in his previous outing at home against the Yankees. The White Sox are 5-5 in Giolito's last 10 starts and were +132 road underdogs when he faced the Mariners last Saturday. 

The total has stayed steady at 8.5 but is juiced towards the Under at -115 to -120, depending on the book. Considering that Bello has been playing well lately and that Boston's run production drops off on the road, that O/U seems pretty bang on. 

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Trend to know

The White Sox are 3-8 in their last 11 games while the Red Sox are 6-2 in their previous eight contests. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. White Sox

Red Sox vs White Sox game info

Starting pitchers

Brayan Bello (4-4, 3.49 ERA): The 24-year-old is in the bottom 20th percentile of the majors in hard-hit rate but it's tough to argue with his results lately. He has a 2.68 ERA since the start of May and is coming off an excellent outing against the Yankees where he allowed one run and fanned a season-high eight batters in seven innings. Bello throws his sinker and fastball with good velocity but his changeup remains his best pitch with opponents having an xBA of just .185 against it.

Lucas Giolito (5-4, 3.54 ERA): Giolito had an ugly 4.90 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP in 30 starts last year. He's been a bit better this season but ranks in the bottom 30th percentile in barrel rate and bottom 40th percentile in hard-hit rate, which indicates that he's not the All-Star he once was.

Giolito has a 1.50 ERA in three starts this month but has been a bit lucky. He's coming off an outing where he limited the Mariners to a pair of earned runs in five innings but also surrendered eight hits and walked three batters.