2023 Canadian Open odds, picks, sleepers: Matt Fitzpatrick, Sam Burns among the expert predictions

The PGA Tour heads north of the border for the RBC Canadian Open. Rory McIlroy is technically the two-time defending champion after the Canadian Open was canceled twice during the COVID-19 years. McIlroy will want to shake off the sting of another weekend that saw him struggle to close out a tournament at last week’s Memorial Tournament.

He will have the added duties of facing the media and the sponsors as the defending champion while also fielding the media’s questions about the stunning news of the PGA Tour, DP World Tour and the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia forming a new golf entity.

McIlroy and the rest of the field will be teeing up a new course for the RBC Canadian Open rotation in Oakdale Golf Club located just outside of Toronto. Oakdale Golf Club measures just under 7,400 yards and will be played as a Par 72 featuring three par 3s and three par 5s. The 18th hole measures 500 yards and will be played as a par 5 despite some conflicting information you might find on the internet — hat tip to Geoff Fienberg for clarifying and shooting some amazing pictures while walking the course this week.

With little data to go on besides some comparative models of similar golf holes, I would suggest lowering your normal investment when it comes to betting and DFS. Not to mention how players will react to the PGA Tour/LIV news. Hopefully, you followed our advice last week so that your bankroll can handle waiting until the U.S. Open to attack again. John Hayes had the winner in One and Done with Viktor Hovland, while I hedged my McCarthy win bet at +15000 with Hovland late in the day when it looked like Hovland would be the only one who could push McCarthy. Neither Hovland nor McCarthy will be teeing it up this week, but we should look at some interesting players and bets.

Betting Slip

Matt Fitzpatrick +1400 hadn’t looked quite right since his win at the RBC Heritage, but then he turned it around on Friday at the Memorial and kept that momentum going on a difficult weekend for most. He gained 7.84 strokes tee to green at the Memorial. If he had played well at the PGA Championship instead of missing the cut we would be looking at single digits for win odds for Fitzpatrick.

Sam Burns +1400 is coming off of a T6 and a T16 finish, where he gained 13.5 strokes combined from tee to green. He was pretty volatile off the tee last season, but he has gained off the tee in six straight measured tournaments.

Shane Lowry +2000 really struggled with his putting in March and April, but has seemed to figure it out in his last few outings. He finished T16 and T12 in his last two tournaments, gaining 9.99 strokes on approach combined. Your factor in his fine play in Canada over his last few trips, and he seems poised to contend.

Adrian Meronk +4000 (shop up to +5000) has been playing really well all over the world in the last few weeks. He won the Italian Open and followed that up by gaining more than 7 strokes ball striking at the PGA Championship. He then returned to the DP World Tour where he finished T5 at the KLM Open. He is in the U.S. Open field based on gaining an exemption based on his world golf ranking. This week, he can gain special temporary status on the PGA Tour with a good showing.

Sleepers

Vincent Norrman +10000 played his way into the U.S. Open field by shooting 69-63 at the Toronto qualifier. He has made three straight cuts while gaining 1.73 or more strokes on approach in each tournament. He’s excellent off the tee and with his wedges.

Grayson Murray +20000 (shop up to +30000) is a small bet for me just to enjoy the chaos. Murray has a win and a T3 in his last three tournaments on the Korn Ferry tour, and it looks like he is going to play his way back onto the PGA Tour.

DFS Plays

Rory McIlroy $11,500 is the two-time defending champion but has really struggled with his wedge game the last few weeks. He has been crushing the ball off the tee and striping his mid-irons, but he has given away a ton of strokes from what is usually his go-to distance.

Sam Burns $10,500 See above.

Tyrrell Hatton $10,200 hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 in five straight tournaments. He is striping it off the tee and has been great on approach before being a slight loser at the Memorial. He’s my number one play this week, and I can’t see fading him even though I am taking him in One and Done, which has been the kiss of death this year.

Matt Fitzpatrick $9,900 See above.

Shane Lowry $9,400 See above.

Cameron Young $9,300 is really struggling with the putter. Since the RBC Heritage, he has lost over 11.5 strokes with the putter combined. He’s still gaining off the tee and his iron play has been good, but not great. He’s the perfect team no putt play this week. A guy we expected to be a factor at the U.S. Open this year who we all had winning his first PGA Tour title before this week. I think he’s a nice game theory play based on putter volatility and his top 5 finish upside.

Adrian Meronk $8,600 See above.

Ludvig Aberg $8,300 has gained status on the PGA Tour after having an excellent career as an amateur. He has made three straight cuts worldwide this calendar year, but his price is just a little too high for me this week. The field is pretty weak, but I would have entertained Aberg more in the low-to-mid $7,000 range.

Michael Kim $8,000 has three top-seven finishes since the beginning of March and comes into this week off of a seventh place finish. He has gained on approach in five out of his last six tournaments and has an excellent wedge game.

Eric Cole $7,900 bounced back from a missed cut with a top 25 at the Memorial last week. I would have been more excited about rostering Cole if he had returned to striking the ball well. Unfortunately, he gained all of his strokes with his short game. Be careful using Cole after those back-to-back weeks of losing multiple strokes on approach.

Taylor Pendrith $7,700 qualified for the U.S. Open and flew back to Canada for his national open. He’s been playing better lately, even if it is one category at a time. One week he is great on approach; the next he is great around the green. Last week he was awful on the greens. When he’s right, his wedge game is on point, and wedge play will be huge this week.

Lee Hodges $7,500 has gained more than six strokes ball striking in back-to-back weeks. He has gained off the tee in six straight measured tournaments. Hodges will burn me this week if he doesn’t play well because I have had a hard time getting him out of my lineups.

Sam Stevens $7,500 has made five straight cuts and has gained strokes off the tee in six out of his last seven tournaments. Stevens has a lot of talent, and he’s starting to show it.

Mackenzie Hughes $7,400 has missed the cut in five out of his last eight tries. He has four straight made cuts at the RBC Canadian Open and hasn’t finished worse than 32nd in his last four tries. I will sprinkle him in, even though his form is poor right now.

Carson Young $7,100 continues to play well every week. He has gained 1.79 strokes or more on approach in five straight tournaments. He struggled off the tee at the Memorial but so did a lot of players.

Aaron Cockerill $7,000 has made six straight cuts on the DP World Tour with five straight top 21 finishes. He has gained strokes off the tee in all six of those tournaments while also gaining over 27 strokes combined with his putter.

CT Pan $7,100 took a long time to recover from an injury last year. He finally looked healthy as he finished fourth at the Byron Nelson, gaining 2 or more strokes in every major category.

Grayson Murray $6,900 See above.

Sam Bennett $6,900 lost 6.5 strokes with his putter last week in his first start as a professional. His ball striking is too good to see him below $7,000 and not use him even if he might struggle with all the new green complexes he will face.

One and Done

Standings

Andrew DeWitt: $9,026,016.22 (1 winner, 19 of 21 cuts)

John Hayes: $8,588,568.37 (1 winner, 16 of 21 cuts)

Dennis Esser: $5,481,069 (17 of 21 cuts)

Hayes with the big hit picking Hovland to win last week and netting $3.6 million. If you want to see the golfers we have used throughout the year, you can see our spreadsheet tracking it here. We pick in reverse order of the standings and can’t duplicate players in a given week.

Esser: I put the Esser jinx on Jon Rahm last week and he literally couldn’t sink a putt to save his life losing 5.23 strokes with his putter. The power of my one-and-done jinx is jarring some times. This week Tyrrell Hatton will have more reasons to curse on the golf course as he will be the one with the dark cloud of my one-and-done pick hanging over his head.

Hayes: This week in Canada I’m going to circle a player I’ve had my eye on all season: Adrian Meronk. The pole won the Italian Open last month, the Australian Open late last year and maybe he can add the Canadian Open trophy to his awards cabinet as well. For me, this is a perfect opportunity to use a player ranked 48th in the OWGR against a weak field. Meronk has added motivation this week because he’s playing for temporary special status on the PGA Tour. A top-15 finish should get it done.

DeWitt: What a mess this tournament is going to end up being with the PGA Tour investment from the PIF and it being the tournament before next week’s U.S. Open in Los Angeles. I don’t want to invest any key players in this spot. I’m going to go with Shane Lowry as he typically plays well in Canada, and his form is rounding out as Dennis mentioned above in his DFS section. This really is just a dart throw.