NASCAR at Las Vegas odds, 2023 playoff predictions: Model locks in shocking South Point 400 picks, leaderboard
The Round of 8 in the 2023 NASCAR Playoffs will begin on Sunday with the 2023 South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The 1.5-mile speedway has been a fixture on the NASCAR schedule since 1998 and it's been hosting two races a year since 2018. William Byron won the spring race in Las Vegas to capture his first of six wins thus far in 2023. Byron enters Sunday's race sitting atop the NASCAR standings. The green flag drops at 2:30 p.m. ET on Sunday.
Byron is listed at 11-2 in the 2023 South Point 400 odds just behind his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Kyle Larson at 9-2. A trio of Toyotas round out the top five on the NASCAR at Las Vegas odds board with Denny Hamlin at 6-1 while Martin Truex Jr. and Tyler Reddick are at 15-2. Before scouring the 2023 South Point 400 starting lineup and making any 2023 NASCAR at Las Vegas predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 NASCAR Las Vegas picks from SportsLine's proven NASCAR model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure's model is off to a red-hot start this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). Then last week it correctly predicted Ryan Blaney to win at Talladega for a 12-1 payout. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021.
All told, the model has nailed a whopping 14 winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Top 2023 South Point 400 predictions
For the 2023 South Point 400, the model is high on Ryan Blaney, even though he's a 14-1 longshot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Las Vegas odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Blaney earned his way into the Round of 8 for the fourth time in the last five seasons with a win at Talladega two weeks ago. He's now looking to give himself a shot in the finale for the first time in his career.
The 29-year-old won the 2023 Coca-Cola 600 on a 1.5-mile speedway and he's also run well historically at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. He has eight top-10 finishes in 14 career Cup starts at LVMS and he's led laps in seven of the last eight races held at the track. He's run well on speedway the majority of the season and should be a factor on Sunday as he looks to climb into the top four.
And a massive shocker: The model says Byron, one of the Vegas favorites at 11-2, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top 10. There are far better values in the 2023 South Point 400 starting lineup. The 25-year-old is making his fifth postseason appearance in a row, and he's established himself as the championship frontrunner with a win and two runner-up finishes in the last three weeks.
Byron won at Las Vegas in the spring, but he did struggle when we last saw him on a 1.5-mile speedway in Kansas. After starting ninth, Byron finished a disappointing 15th, and he's also been outside the top 10 in seven of his 11 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.
How to make 2023 NASCAR at Las Vegas picks
The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2023 NASCAR Las Vegas odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
2023 South Point 400 odds, drivers, lineup
Kyle Larson 9-2William Byron 11-2Denny Hamlin 6-1Tyler Reddick 15-2Martin Truex Jr. 15-2Chase Elliott 12-1Christopher Bell 12-1Kyle Busch 14-1Ryan Blaney 14-1Brad Keselowski 18-1Chris Buescher 18-1Bubba Wallace 20-1Ross Chastain 22-1Alex Bowman 30-1Joey Logano 30-1Kevin Harvick 40-1Erik Jones 40-1Ty Gibbs 40-1Daniel Suarez 80-1Aric Almirola 150-1Carson Hocevar 150-1Ricky Stenhouse 150-1A.J. Allmendinger 250-1Chase Briscoe 250-1Michael McDowell 250-1Austin Dillon 300-1Austin Cindric 400-1Justin Haley 500-1Ryan Preece 500-1Harrison Burton 750-1Corey Lajoie 1000-1Todd Gilliland 1500-1Ty Dillon 5000-1JJ Yeley 5000-1BJ McLeod 5000-1
