2023 Daytona 500 odds, predictions, start time: Surprising NASCAR picks by the model that nailed Clash winner
Denny Hamlin will be trying to get back into victory lane at the 2023 Daytona 500 on Sunday. Hamlin is a three-time winner at Daytona International Speedway, posting an average finishing position of 4.25 over an eight-year stretch from 2014 to 2021. However, he was involved in a crash that caused him to finish outside the top 30 last season. Caesars Sportsbook lists him as the 11-1 favorite in the 2023 Daytona 500 odds, putting him just ahead of four other drivers at 12-1.
One of the drivers priced at 12-1 is 2021 Cup Series champion Kyle Larson, who is expected to be one of the 2023 Daytona 500 contenders on Sunday. This has not been his best track, though, as he has finished no better than seventh place in nine career appearances at Daytona. Before scouring the 2023 Daytona 500 starting lineup and making any 2023 NASCAR at Daytona predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 Daytona 500 picks from SportsLine's proven NASCAR model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure's model is off to a red-hot start this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s win at the Clash at the Coliseum, returning 20-1, and predicting Joey Logano's Daytona Duel victory at 8-1. It also impressively nailed five of Kyle Larson's wins during his historic season. All told, the model has nailed a whopping eight winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Top 2023 Daytona 500 predictions
One surprise: the model is high on Tyler Reddick, even though he's a 20-1 longshot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Daytona odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. This will be his first race with the No. 45 Toyota at 23XI Racing after spending the last six years with Chevrolet. Reddick's new ride previously belonged to 2004 Cup Series champion Kurt Busch.
He is also inheriting a new crew chief, Billy Scott, who worked with Busch, Ty Gibbs and Daniel Hemric last season. Reddick is coming off the best season of his career, recording his first three wins at the Cup Series level. He led a career-high 503 laps along with finishing third among all drivers in wins, so he has momentum coming into the beginning of the 2023 season. See who else to back at SportsLine.
And a massive shocker: Kyle Larson, one of the top favorites at 12-1, stumbles and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in this loaded 2023 Daytona 500 starting lineup. Despite his 19 overall careers wins, Larson has struggled to find success at Daytona.
He's never finished higher than third in any NASCAR event at this iconic track. His 22.6 average finish position at Daytona ranks 34th among current drivers, making Larson one of the 2023 Daytona 500 favorites to avoid on Sunday. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.
How to make 2023 NASCAR at Daytona picks
The model is also targeting four other drivers with 2023 NASCAR Daytona odds longer than 15-1 to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
2023 Daytona 500 odds
See full 2023 Daytona 500 picks at SportsLineDenny Hamlin 10-1Ryan Blaney 12-1Kyle Larson 12-1Chase Elliott 12-1Joey Logano 13-1Kyle Busch 15-1Ross Chastain 16-1William Byron 18-1Bubba Wallace 18-1Martin Truex Jr. 18-1Brad Keselowski 18-1Tyler Reddick 20-1Austin Cindric 22-1Kevin Harvick 25-1Alex Bowman 25-1Ty Gibbs 25-1Christopher Bell 25-1Erik Jones 30-1Chase Brisco 30-1Daniel Suarez 30-1Austin Dillon 30-1Chris Buescher 30-1Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 30-1Aric Almirola 35-1Ryan Preece 35-1Jimmie Johnson 35-1Michael McDowell 35-1A.J. Allmendinger 40-1Noah Gragson 45-1Justin Haley 50-1Austin Hill 75-1Zane Smith 75-1Harrison Burton 75-1Conor Daly 100-1Chandler Smith 100-1Corey Lajoie 100-1Ty Dillon 125-1Travis Pastrana 150-1Riley Herbst 150-1Todd Gilliland 150-1Cody Ware 750-1
