Daily tennis tips: US Open best bets, betting analysis and accumulators Monday September 4

Tennis betting tips: US Open, Monday September 4

1.5pts Peyton Stearns (+5.5) to beat Marketa Vondrousova on the game handicap at 10/11 (Sky Bet)

1.5pts over 36.5 games in Jack Draper v Andrey Rublev at 17/20 (William Hill)

Jack Draper v Andrey Rublev

Long-term readers will know how highly I rate Draper – his ceiling looks very high and I feel there’s every chance that in a couple of years he could be up there in the top 10 with Rublev.

However, to be that he’ll need his body to hold up and that’s something that hasn’t always been the case in the early stages of his career.

With his fitness not a problem at the moment, Draper has impressed again at this tournament, using his thumping forehand and strong serve to good effect and losing only one set thus far.

He’s already taken out Hubert Hurkacz but now comes another big challenge in world number eight Rublev.

I remember seeing Draper push the Russian all the way in Madrid last season where the Briton’s power really proved troublesome and I do feel he has a decent chance here.

However, Rublev did gain his revenge in fairly convincing fashion on the hardcourts of Washington last summer and overall he has an excellent record against left-handers – a 70% win rate, compared to 63% against righties.

I suspect Rublev will look to take the forehand away a lot with that right-left match-up and so I’m not prepared to pull the trigger on Draper at 9/4.

I do, however, think the Brit will keep this competitive and I like the look of the overs in the total games market.

When Rublev wins at the Grand Slams, he rarely does so easily – in his last 27 matches at this level, he’s won only four in straight sets.

Of course, not all of the other 23 have landed my bet, far from it, but it does further highlight that this is unlikely to be a stroll in the park for the favourite.

With these being two strong servers playing in the heat of the day – it’s going to top 30C again on Monday - I’d expect over 36.5 games to land if it does go four sets.

Peyton Stearns v Marketa Vondrousova

Despite being the Wimbledon champion, Vondrousova has gone pretty much under the radar into the last 16 of the US Open.

She has strolled through to this stage and is yet to be tested but I believe that may happen here.

Stearns has also been talked about little, the Americans focusing on title hopes Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula, but she’s yet to lose a set at this tournament, albeit she is yet to face a seed.

Clearly there’s potential for the jump in level to prove too big a gap but I like the way she’s been hitting the ball – her forehand is a major weapon, while the serve is also impressive.

I still have some reservations about Vondrousova on hardcourts, a surface she’s yet to conquer.

The Czech has never reached a final on an outdoor hardcourt, she’s yet to go beyond this stage on a hardcourt Slam and even at WTA 1000 level, she’s has failed to reach a semi-final.

She may still have too much for Stearns but I feel 9/2 about the underdog is a bit large.

I’m keen to side with the former collegiate player in some way and the route I’m taking is via the game handicap.

Stearns gets a 5.5-game start, one she narrowly failed to cover when she lost 6-2 7-5 at Wimbledon earlier this summer.

Moving onto her favoured hardcourts and clearly playing well, I think she can do better in New York and cover the spread.

Posted at 0920 BST on 04/09/23

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