F1 Qatar Grand Prix odds, podium predictions: Max Verstappen expected to clinch championship

It didn’t take long for Max Verstappen’s third straight championship to be a forgone conclusion, but it is likely to become official this weekend. Verstappen can lock up the drivers’ championship in Saturday’s sprint race in Qatar.

Clinching during a sprint race would be a first. All Verstappen needs to do is finish sixth or higher in the sprint race to clinch the title.

Seeing a championship clinched in Qatar would be a memorable moment for a track new to Formula One. The Lusail International Circuit hosted its first grand prix in 2021 and skipped last year due to the FIFA World Cup also taking place in Qatar that year. This year’s race marks the start of a 10-year deal to have F1 races in Qatar, so get used to this track.

The last time F1 was in Lusail, front left tires suffered. There were three punctures to front left tires, leading teams to tell drivers to be careful with their tires. That could be something to watch this year, but teams will also have race data to work with going into this weekend as opposed to everything being new in 2021. This is a night race with conditions expected to be hot and dry so the tires will likely be tested regardless of what the teams are prepared for.

Verstappen is again the heavy favorite to win the race and is favored for each qualifying session. The McLaren resurgence is noted in the odds with Lando Norris on the same odds to win the grand prix (+1200, 12-to-1) as Sergio Pérez. Oscar Piastri is next in line.

Qatar Grand Prix odds

The Athletic’s F1 writers, Madeline Coleman and Luke Smith, talked about Verstappen likely clinching during a sprint race, what to make of the Lusail track and who to expect on the podium.

Max Verstappen is likely to clinch the championship on Saturday in a sprint race, but do you really care how, when and where he clinches the title?

Luke Smith: It definitely matters. The ‘where’ is less of a concern, even though it would have been cooler to have the title sealed ideally at the last race for competitive reasons, or with the glitz of Las Vegas or the atmosphere of Austin. The ‘when’ really does irk me though. I’ve always been a big supporter of sprint races, but having Verstappen jump out of the car after 19 laps and be declared world champion is going to feel very strange.

Madeline Coleman: I do care, in all honesty. It seemed inevitable throughout the season that Verstappen would clinch the title, and it was a matter of when. I enjoy sprint race weekends; however, winning the world championship on a Saturday takes some of the shine away because the grand prix is the next day.

This is the second race in Qatar. What do you think of the Lusail International Circuit?

Smith: It’s not a track that has screamed F1 in the past. I came to the 2021 race when it was a late addition to the calendar to make up for canceled races, and the facility has since undergone significant investment and changes. The track layout itself is fairly uninspiring. The flow of high-speed corners makes for exciting onboards, but the 2021 race was hardly a thriller. Bear in mind this is a track made for bikes, not F1 cars.

Coleman: What is interesting to me about the desert-based track is that it’s largely been considered a motorcycle racing circuit for some time now. MotoGP has been racing there since 2004, and night racing began four years later. Keep an eye on Turn 1 because it’s one of the best locations for overtaking.

McLaren is hot (Lando Norris is tied in the odds with Sergio Pérez for Qatar and Oscar Piastri is fourth). Can McLaren catch Aston Martin, which is 49 points ahead with six races to go?

Smith: By now, it’s a matter of when, not if. This should be a big weekend for McLaren. The run of high-speed corners will play to the strengths of the MCL60 car, much like the first sector did at Suzuka. I’m anticipating another 30-plus point haul for the papaya cars, meaning the gap to Aston Martin should largely be wiped away. Unless Aston Martin can find some form, and fast, a slip to P5 seems inevitable.

Coleman: Absolutely. McLaren’s been on a meteoric rise since Austria when the team fitted major upgrades to Norris’ car and did the same to Piastri’s MCL60 at Silverstone. The team scored 17 points in the first eight races, but over the last eight, Norris and Piastri secured 155 combined points. It doesn’t seem like they’ll be slowing down too terribly much, especially with three sprint races left.

Let’s turn the Andretti news into a betting-type question. At this point, what are the odds the Andretti team joins F1?

Smith: The biggest hurdle is still to come. FIA approval was always likely, given the strength of Andretti’s racing record. But the big thing all the teams and F1 itself has made clear since the beginning is that it cannot negatively impact them commercially. It’ll take a big argument from Andretti in the coming months to change those minds, but you can be sure they are going to give it absolutely everything to make it happen. I’m excited to get my teeth into the story!

Coleman: As interesting as it would be to have Andretti Cadillac (or Andretti Formula Racing LLP) on the F1 grid, I could see it going either way for similar reasons Luke mentioned. This is the most stable the sport has been for some time, and the grid is getting closer together competition-wise. Adding Andretti would mean splitting the profits 11 ways instead of 10, and how could that impact the current grid? Whether or not Andretti is on the grid will come down to Formula One Management’s decision.

Prediction time: What do you think will be the podium in Qatar?

Smith: Verstappen, Norris, Piastri

Coleman: Verstappen, Norris, Pérez