Milwaukee Brewers at Toronto Blue Jays odds, picks and predictions

The Milwaukee Brewers (29-26) close out a 3-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays (29-27) on Thursday at Rogers Centre. First pitch is scheduled for 1:07 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Blue Jays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: tied 1-1

The Brewers evened up the series with a 4-2 victory Wednesday. Milwaukee has won only 2 of its last 6 games and is 1 game ahead of the Pittsburgh Pirates for 1st place in the NL Central.

Blue Jays RHP Alek Manoah‘s struggles continued as he allowed 2 earned runs and struck out only 2 batters over 4 innings in an 89-pitch. Toronto has gone 4-6 in its last 10 contests and is in 4th place in the AL East, 10 games back of the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays.

Brewers at Blue Jays projected starters

RHP Freddy Peralta vs. RHP Kevin Gausman

Peralta (5-4, 4.64 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 54 1/3 IP.

• Has given up 5-plus hits and 3-plus ER in each of his last 3 starts
• Has walked 2-plus batters in 7 of his turns

Gausman (3-3, 3.03 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 through 68 1/3 IP.

• Has struck out 7-plus batters in 8 of his first 11 starts
• His ERA is ballooned due to allowing 7-plus ER in 2 of his first 11 starts despite that he’s surrendered 2 or fewer ER in 8 outings

Brewers at Blue Jays odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:07 a.m. ET.

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Brewers at Blue Jays picks and predictions

Prediction

Blue Jays 5, Brewers 3

PASS.

The Blue Jays (-200) are favored with Gausman on the mound, but taking their moneyline isn’t worth the risk at such steep odds considering how they’ve played lately.

BLUE JAYS -1.5 (-105) has decent value with Peralta struggling in recent starts for the Brewers. Milwaukee was tied for the 4th-worst wRC+ (82) against right-handed pitching in May.

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LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-110).

Despite Peralta’s recent woes, it’s tough to expect 9 or more runs in this matchup. The Brewers are 3-0-1 to the Under in their last 4 interleague games and the Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these squads in Toronto.

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