Vladimir Guerrero Jr. futures odds for 2024 MLB season: RBI champ, MVP, hits total and more markets

To some people, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s 2021 season is a distant memory. To others, it represents a promise of what he can be for a team with World Series dreams.

Guerrero has taken significant steps backward since his MVP runner-up campaign in '21. Then again, he's been an all-star three seasons running.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. futures

MLB oddsas of 12:50 p.m. ET on 02/29/24.

In his magical 2021 season, Guerrero led the majors in runs (123), home runs (48) and total bases (363) while also pacing the American League in OPS (1.002).

But his numbers fell across the board in 2022, and they fell even further in '23. Last year, Guerrero finished with just 26 homers and a .788 OPS.

It's not all bad news, though. Baseball Savant still looks upon Vladdy quite favourably. In 2023, the first baseman's batting average (.264) was a league-high 35 points below his expected mark.

Additionally, Guerrero's slugging percentage last year (.444) was 59 points below his xSLG at Baseball Savant. That chasm was tied for the sixth-greatest in MLB.

While his back-of-the-baseball-card stats have taken a hit, Guerrero's batted ball quality is still exceptionally high.

Pair that with his career-low strikeout rate last season (14.7%, 90th percentile in MLB), and it's fair to have some optimism for the new year.

Guerrero over/under odds

MLB oddsas of 12:50 p.m. ET on 02/29/24.

Baseball Savant isn't the only site that's relatively high on Guerrero for the upcoming season. FanGraphs is also predicting that the soon-to-be 25-year-old will take a notable step in the right direction.

According to ZiPS, published at FanGraphs, Guerrero is on track for a 3.2 fWAR season that includes 31 HRs, 100 RBIs and an .849 OPS.

That's still nowhere near his '21 pace, mind you, but it'd likely put him in position to be an all-star once again.

When looking at Guerrero's over/under futures odds for the new season, the line that sticks out most is hits (over/under 164.5).

After back-to-back seasons of 175-plus hits, Guerrero finished with 159 hits in 156 games last season — and remember, he had the league's greatest discrepancy between BA and xBA.

As long as he stays healthy, Guerrero has demonstrated that clearing a 164.5-hit line is attainable for him.