Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies predictions
Citizens Bank ParkBS NO, NBCS PHI
60-58
Twins
65-52
Phillies
Money Line Pick
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This game presents a sizable starting pitching advantage for the Minnesota Twins on paper. Pablo Lopez has a 3.10 xERA, 3.27 FIP, 3.33 SIERA and a 23.8% K-BB% and enters this game in elite form with just 5 earned runs surrendered across his last 25 innings. Minnesota acquired him this offseason in the deal for Luis Arraez, and immediately made shifts to his pitch shapes and mix. Lopez dropped his changeup usage by about 15% while increasing the use of his curveball and sinker. The largest shift, however, was his pivot from a cutter to a full-on sweeper that has opened up his game to a new level. This sweeping action has helped stretch his zone horizontally against batters and increased his chase rate from a 70th-percentile clip last season to the 96th percentile this year. Having 4 true strikeout pitches to go to has helped his numbers with 2 strikes this season. Lopez is slightly worse against left-handed batters, which is admittedly not ideal against the power lefties that the Phillies possess. Kyle Schwarber and Byrce Harper have solid history against him from his time in Miami, but the rest of the lineup has largely been unsuccessful in head-to-head matchups. Overall, against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days the Phillies are just middle of the pack, ranking 15th in wOBA and hard-hit rate, and producing a wRC+ of 98.
The Twins offense has been much better against RHP in that same 30-day span. Minnesota ranks 2nd in hard-hit rate, 5th in wOBA and have a wRC+ of 124 during this run. Their offense is always heavily reliant on the home run, but their current numbers are supporting their success. Minnesota is walking at the 9th-highest rate, hitting fly balls at the 4th-highest rate and those fly balls are leaving the park. Ryan Jeffers has started to get starts at DH even when he isn’t catching thanks to his hot bat, and I like their matchup today. Taijuan Walker was the Phillies’ major acquisition to their rotation this offseason, and for the most part he has done his job. The right-hander has a 13-4 record with a 3.98 ERA, but his underlying profile is far less impressive than his counterpart. Walker has just a 4.20 xERA, 4.40 FIP, 4.77 SIERA and 9.5% K-BB% this season. He pitches to contact yet ranks just 40th percentile in xBA, and his command hasn’t been the best lately with 2 or more walks in 5 of his last 6 starts. The Phillies may have a slight bullpen advantage, but these teams are close in that department. I expect a close game but side with the superior starter and the lineup in better form.
Twins ML (-118) available at time of publishing. Playable to -125.
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A lifelong sports fan from Northwestern Pennsylvania. Die-hard supporter of the Steelers, Pirates and Cavaliers. Insane passion for writing about sports and helping others improve. Incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise is giving me. For Javan Shouey media enquiries, please email [email protected].
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