Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates predictions
Money Line Pick
PHI Phillies Win
Reasoning
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Mitch Keller has been terrific this season for the Pittsburgh Pirates, finally putting together a season that has showcased his talents and earned him an All-Star appearance. He has pitched poorly this month, however, allowing a 7.04 ERA across 4 July starts. His 2 appearances since the All-Star break have resulted in 10 hits, 2 home runs and 8 earned runs to the Guardians, and 9 hits, 3 home runs and 6 earned runs to the Angels. With only 12 Ks to 8 BB in his last 3 starts, Keller is not in his best form and he draws a tough matchup today. The Phillies lineup can be inconsistent, but their lefty power may give the Pirates right-hander some issues. Keller ranks in just the 29th percentile in barrel rate this season and has allowed 16 home runs, with 6 coming this month. He struggles specifically against left-handed batters, allowing a .256 AVG, .207 ISO and .341 wOBA while seeing a drop in his ground-ball rate and an increase in his BB%. The Phillies feature Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh regularly, and Jake Cave may also make an appearance as a 5th left-hander. Behind Keller is a Pirates’ bullpen that has been better in the last month and is rested after a day off but has been inconsistent all season. Rain may also cause delays in this game and put more of a workload on that Pirates pen.
Zack Wheeler allowed 3 or more earned runs in 4 consecutive starts before his last outing against the Guardians, tossing 7 innings of 1-run ball with 8 strikeouts against a team that doesn’t often whiff. Wheeler has amassed 28 strikeouts to only 1 walk in 4 starts this month, so command is clearly not a concern. None of Washington, San Diego, Miami or Cleveland is a high K% team, so he may find great success in that department against Pittsburgh tonight. The Pirates’ youthful lineup features 5 rookies most nights and with all of those players learning how to play at this level, growing pains are inevitable. While Wheeler has a 3.88 ERA this season, his highest since 2019, his FIP of 2.88 and SIERA of 3.47 are more accurate representations of his skills. The right-hander ranks in the 80th percentile or better in average exit velocity, xSLG and barrel rate while sitting 94th percentile in BB%. His ground-ball rate is down but only 10 home runs have been surrendered across 118.1 IP. Pittsburgh doesn’t grade out well offensively in the last 30 days against right-handed pitching, ranking 25th in wOBA with a wRC+ of 81 and the 5th-highest K% at 26.1%. The Phillies bullpen in the last 30 days actually ranks 1st in ERA and 5th in FIP so they should be able to close the door once Wheeler exits.
Phillies ML (-155) available at time of publishing. Playable to -160.
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A lifelong sports fan from Northwestern Pennsylvania. Die-hard supporter of the Steelers, Pirates and Cavaliers. Insane passion for writing about sports and helping others improve. Incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise is giving me. For Javan Shouey media enquiries, please email [email protected].
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