Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies predictions
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Patrick Corbin pitched 2 different games in his last start against the Cincinnati Reds. He began the game with 2 home runs allowed in the first inning and another in the third, all of which were solo shots, unfortunately so for the purpose of my Reds team total bet. He then settled in nicely, however, allowing just 1 other hit and no more runs, completing 6.1 innings in total. Still, despite pitching decently in a tough environment, Corbin has allowed 9 home runs in his last 6 starts and 24 total on the season thanks to his 35th percentile barrel rate. The southpaw ranks just 10th percentile in hard-hit rate with a 4th percentile xSLG and the league’s worst xBA. He doesn’t often walk men, but that is due to his high zone contact rate and the quality of contact opponents are able to get against him. Why walk when you can take him 400 feet? Today Corbin faces a Phillies lineup that has been very tough on him in recent matchups. They have yet to face off this season, but last year the Phillies got 20 earned runs off him in his 4 starts spanning a combined 15 innings. Active Phillies bats have a combined .344 average across 128 PA while racking up 17 extra-base hits. In the last 30 days against left-handed pitching Philadelphia ranks 5th in wOBA with a 118 wRC+. The Nationals bullpen isn’t much better than Corbin, either, ranking 27th in ERA across the last 30 days.
With back-to-back outings against the Pirates and Royals entering this game, one may have looked ahead on the schedule and expected Aaron Nola to be rolling entering today’s matchup. A slew of advantageous matchups in a row would lead an educated sports fan to believe that, but his performance has been far from impressive. The impending free agent pitcher allowed 9 hits, 3 walks, 1 home run, and 7 runs with 5 earned against him in his outing against the Pirates. He followed that up with 8 hits, 2 more home runs, and 5 earned runs overall against Kansas City. That makes 5 consecutive games with 5 or more runs allowed by Nola, 11 of his last 13 games, and 18 of 23 starts overall this season. While many of those runs allowed have been unearned, his run prevention measures have slipped in his own right. A career-high barrel rate and the lowest K/9 since his rookie season are not a great combination when looking to get paid in a few months, and his 4.30 FIP is also his worst mark ever. I prefer Washington’s offense when they are against left-handed pitching, but with favorable hitting conditions in Philadelphia and a pitcher in poor form they should be able to scratch across their share of runs and help the game exceed the posted total.
Over 9 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
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A lifelong sports fan from Northwestern Pennsylvania. Die-hard supporter of the Steelers, Pirates and Cavaliers. Insane passion for writing about sports and helping others improve. Incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise is giving me. For Javan Shouey media enquiries, please email [email protected].
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