St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks predictions
Game Totals Pick
Arizona’s Merrill Kelly had his tremendous season paused by a blood clot in his leg that held him out of play for a month. He threw a simulated bullpen recently, however, reaching 85 pitches. While likely not undertaking a full workload today, Kelly shouldn’t be too limited based on reports. He does have a tough matchup, however, as the Cardinals offense has been very good against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. In that span they rank 4th in wOBA and 3rd in AVG and have a wRC+ of 126. The 12th-highest walk rate and 6th-lowest K% during that time exemplifies their plus plate discipline as a unit. Kelly has put together a very good season, but some of his metrics are still lacking. He issues free passes more than league average, ranking in the 30th percentile in that department thanks to a 58.8% first-pitch strike rate. His 40.3% hard-hit rate ranks in the 40th percentile and is a career-worst mark while his barrel rate sits in the 37th percentile. His 3.85 FIP and 4.12 SIERA are both good marks, but actually worse than last season, and his 4.31 xERA is over a full run higher than his 3.22 ERA. While I am still a fan of Kelly, this isn’t the easiest welcome back to the show and behind him is an Arizona bullpen that has been disastrous this month, ranking 28th in ERA, 27th in FIP and 25th in K-BB%.
The Cardinals’ Steven Matz has pitched decently over his last 3 starts, allowing 5 combined earned runs across 14.2 IP. During those starts he has been fully stretched out again as well, reaching 97 pitches against the Cubs in his last outing. While Arizona has not produced against LHP in the last 30 days, the D-Backs also have the 4th-lowest sample size of PA in that span. Across 1,000 PA this season against southpaw pitching, their 94 wRC+ is not the most desirable mark, but they are still a speedy team focused on making contact and putting the ball in play. Their recent struggles have stemmed from slumps to power threats in Christian Walker and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., but they won’t stay cold forever, and they draw an advantageous spot for runs today. Matz this season ranks just 24th percentile in xBA with a 33rd-percentile average exit velocity. He keeps the ball on the ground for the most part, but still allows the ball to be hit too hard. His season-long numbers are deflated thanks to a successful stint in the bullpen where he held opponents to a .584 OPS across 63 PA. While he may have tweaked something to help fix his game during that stretch, his .828 OPS allowed as a starter is still an eye-opening number. Behind Matz is a Cardinals bullpen that is 23rd in ERA and 28th in WHIP since July began. Look for runs in this matchup.
Over 9 (-106) available at time of publishing. Playable to -110 odds.
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A lifelong sports fan from Northwestern Pennsylvania. Die-hard supporter of the Steelers, Pirates and Cavaliers. Insane passion for writing about sports and helping others improve. Incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise is giving me. For Javan Shouey media enquiries, please email [email protected].
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