2023 Pennzoil 400 odds, predictions, start time, lineup: Surprising NASCAR at Las Vegas picks by proven model

NASCAR's 75th-anniversary season is off and running, and the third race on the NASCAR schedule will take place Sunday when the 2023 Pennzoil 400 is held at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The 1.5-mile oval has been a stop in the NASCAR Cup Series since 1998 and hosted races biannually since 2018. The green flag is scheduled to drop at 3:30 p.m. ET and the race will run for 267 laps. Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson are the 6-1 co-favorites in the 2023 Pennzoil 400 odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while points leader Ross Chastain is 8-1. Defending NASCAR Cup Series champion Joey Logano is also 8-1 in the 2023 NASCAR at Las Vegas odds in his Roger Penske Ford. Before scouring the 2023 Pennzoil 400 starting lineup and making any 2023 NASCAR at Las Vegas predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 Pennzoil 400 picks from SportsLine's proven NASCAR model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure's model is off to a red-hot start this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), and Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1). It also impressively nailed five of Kyle Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping nine winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Top 2023 Pennzoil 400 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Chase Elliott, even though he's an 11-1 long shot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Las Vegas odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Elliott is only 27 years old, but he's already an 18-time winner in the NASCAR Cup Series and is coming off a five-win season in 2022, matching his career best from 2020 when he won the NASCAR championship.

Elliott is coming off a second-place finish at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana last week after starting in 33rd position and ran six fastest laps. Elliott has a trio of top-five finishes at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, including a second-place finish at the 2021 South Point 400. He's also led laps in five of his last seven starts at Las Vegas, with 10 laps led or more over a four-race span from 2019 to 2021. See who else to back at SportsLine.

And a massive shocker: Ross Chastain, one of the top Vegas favorites at 8-1, stumbles big-time and doesn't even crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2023 Pennzoil 400 starting lineup. After becoming one of the most polarizing figures in the sport during a rapid rise to fame in 2022, Chastain enters the third race on the NASCAR schedule as the points-leader thanks to a pair of top-10 finishes.

However, Chastain couldn't find his way to victory lane in either of those races despite leading six laps at Daytona and a race-high 91 in Fontana last week. Despite having the most dominant car in Las Vegas last season, Chastain failed to get to victory lane in either race and had finished 20th or worse in his previous seven starts there. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.

How to make 2023 NASCAR at Las Vegas picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2023 NASCAR Las Vegas odds longer than 10-1 to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

2023 Pennzoil 400 odds, lineup

Kyle Busch 6-1Kyle Larson 6-1Ross Chastain 8-1Joey Logano 8-1Martin Truex Jr. 10-1Denny Hamlin 10-1Ryan Blaney 10-1Chase Elliott 11-1Christopher Bell 12-1William Byron 12-1Kevin Harvick 15-1Alex Bowman 20-1Tyler Reddick 20-1Daniel Suarez 25-1Bubba Wallace 28-1Austin Dillon 35-1Brad Keselowski 40-1Chase Briscoe 40-1Erik Jones 50-1Austin Cindric 50-1A.J. Allmendinger 75-1Noah Gragson 75-1Ty Gibbs 75-1Aric Almirola 100-1Chris Buescher 100-1Ryan Preece 125-1Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 125-1Harrison Burton 250-1Justin Haley 300-1Michael McDowell 500-1Corey Lajoie 750-1Ty Dillon 1000-1Todd Gilliland 1000-1J.J. Yeley 2500-1Cody Ware 2500-1