2023 Quaker State 400 odds, picks: Projected NASCAR at Atlanta leaderboard, predictions from proven model

After a spectacle unlike anything we've seen before last week as the NASCAR Cup Series raced through the streets of Chicago, it will be business as usual this week at the 2023 Quaker State 400. The green flag drops on the 1.54-mile oval at Atlanta Motor Speedway at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday and the race is scheduled for 260 laps. Joey Logano, Chase Elliott and Kyle Busch are 10-1 co-favorites in the 2023 Quaker State 400 odds from Caesars Sportsbook. There are also seven other drivers on the NASCAR at Atlanta odds board priced at 16-1 or lower.

Our proven NASCAR projection model has simulated the race 10,000 times and came up with a surprising leaderboard.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model takes into account a slew of factors including track history and recent results.

McClure's model is off to a red-hot start this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). In Austin, it listed Tyler Reddick as one of its best values and he went on to win for a 10-1 payout. It also impressively nailed five of Kyle Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 12 winners since 2021! Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw HUGE returns.   

Now, the model has dialed in on the 2023 Quaker State 400 and released its projections.

Atlanta Motor Speedway has been a fixture on the NASCAR schedule since 1960 when Fireball Roberts won the inaugural race from pole position. In recent years, the heavily-banked quad-oval has been a stronghold for Ford, who has won six of the last nine events held in Atlanta. This is the second race in Atlanta this season and Logano, the defending NASCAR Cup Series champion, led 140 laps on his way to a dominant victory back in March. It was Logano's first win at AMS while Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick will be the only drivers in Sunday's field with multiple wins in Atlanta to their name.

For the 2023 Quaker State 400, the model is high on Martin Truex Jr., even though he's a 25-1 longshot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Atlanta odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a HUGE payday. And a massive shocker: Joey Logano, one of the Vegas co-favorites at 10-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five! There are far better values in the 2023 Quaker State 400 starting lineup.

The model is also targeting two other driverswith 2023 NASCAR at Atlanta odds longer than 15-1 to make a serious run at the checkered flag!Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who it is before locking in any NASCAR picks.