Week 1 NFL picks, odds, 2023 best bets from advanced model: This 5-way football parlay pays out 25-1

The Week 1 NFL schedule is expected to be one of the most tightly-contested in recent memory, with 15 of the 16 Week 1 NFL spreads at seven points or fewer. In one of eight divisional matchups in Week 1, the Seattle Seahawks will host the Los Angeles Rams and both teams are dealing with injuries at wide receiver. First-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a wrist injury, while former NFL Offensive Player of the Year Cooper Kupp will be sidelined with a hamstring injury. Seattle is a five-point favorite in the Week 1 NFL odds according to the SportsLine Consensus and tied with Jacksonville (at Indianapolis) as the largest favorite in any divisional game. Before you make any Week 1 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 163-113 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 17-6 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of this season.  

The model ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has locked in five confident NFL best bets for Week 1. If you successfully parlay its picks, you'd be looking at a massive payout of around 25-1. You can only see the model's Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLine.

Top Week 1 NFL picks

After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model is high on the San Francisco 49ers (-2) to cover on the road over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Kyle Shanahan's offense is loaded with playmaking ability and he's seemingly found the right distributor in second-year quarterback Brock Purdy, who will play in Week 1 despite offseason elbow surgery.

Purdy will have Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk at his disposal, while George Kittle is questionable with a groin injury. Shanahan's ability to move those four stars all over the field in order to create mismatches is nearly unparalleled in the NFL.

San Francisco's defense led the NFL in points allowed (277) and yards allowed (5,110) and the model predicts tough sledding for Kenny Pickett and Pittsburgh's offense. That's why the 49ers cover in well over 50% of simulations and are worth consideration in your Week 1 NFL parlays. See which other NFL parlay picks to make here.

How to make Week 1 NFL parlays

The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where it says the line is way off, including a pair of underdogs that have a chance to win outright. You can only see the model's NFL Week 1 best bets and parlay at SportsLine. 

What are the model's top Week 1 NFL picks? And which other NFL matchups should you target for a strong 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 1 NFL best bets from a model on a 163-113 run on its top-rated picks, and find out.