Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets

The Dallas Mavericks (15-8) will try to build on a four-game winning streak when they host the Minnesota Timberwolves (17-5) on Thursday, December 14, 2023 at American Airlines Center as only 2-point favorites. The game airs at 8:30 PM ET on BSSW. The matchup’s over/under is set at 229.

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Odds

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Mavericks and Timberwolves Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

When they have played as at least 2-point favorites this season, the Mavericks are 7-5 against the spread.

The Timberwolves have a 3-2 record against the spread this year when an underdog by 2 points or more.

The Mavericks and Timberwolves average 3.9 more points between them than the total of 229 for this matchup.

Opponents of these teams have averaged a combined 222.8 points per game, 6.2 fewer than the over/under in this matchup.

The Mavericks’ average point total in outings this season is 237.1, 8.1 points higher than the over/under in this game.

The average point total for Minnesota this season is 10.4 points fewer than this game’s over/under.

Dallas has a 13-10-0 record against the spread this season.

The Timberwolves’ ATS record is 11-9-2 this year.

Mavericks Stats & Insights

The Mavericks outscore opponents by 3.3 points per game (scoring 120.2 points per game to rank sixth in the league while allowing 116.9 per contest to rank 21st in the NBA) and have a +76 scoring differential overall.

The Mavericks lose the rebound battle by 3.7 boards on average. They collect 42.3 rebounds per game, which ranks 23rd in the league, while their opponents grab 46.0 per outing.

Dallas hits 16.3 three-pointers per game (first in the league) while shooting 37.9% from beyond the arc (sixth-best in the NBA). It is making 3.1 more threes per contest than its opponents, who drain 13.2 per game while shooting 37.1%.

The Mavericks put up 120.5 points per 100 possessions (fourth in the league), while allowing 117.2 points per 100 possessions (21st in the NBA).

The Mavericks’ offense has been much better at home (122.3 PPG) compared to road games (118.3 PPG). However, their defense has been worse when playing at home (117.8 PPG allowed) when compared to their play on the road (116.1 PPG allowed).

Timberwolves Stats & Insights

The Timberwolves put up 112.7 points per game (21st in league) while allowing 105.9 per outing (second in NBA). They have a +150 scoring differential and outscore opponents by 6.8 points per game.

Minnesota ranks fifth in the NBA at 46.0 rebounds per game. That’s 4.0 more than the 42.0 its opponents average.

The Timberwolves make 11.7 three-pointers per game (22nd in the league) compared to their opponents’ 11.5. They shoot 36.7% from deep, and their opponents shoot 33.7%.

The Timberwolves average 114.9 points per 100 possessions on offense (17th in league), and give up 108.0 points per 100 possessions (first in NBA).

Minnesota is putting up fewer points at home (111.3 per game) than away (114.2).

Mavericks Key Players to Watch

Luka Doncic averages 32.0 points and 8.2 rebounds per game, with 8.9 assists.

Doncic makes more threes per game than any other (active) member of the Mavericks, knocking down shots from beyond the arc at a clip of 3.9 per contest.

Doncic averages 1.3 takeaways per game, and Dereck Lively II records 1.6 rejections per contest.

Timberwolves Key Players to Watch

Karl-Anthony Towns tallies 21.6 points per game. He also contributes 9.1 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game this season.

This season, Rudy Gobert has a statline that includes 13.3 points, 1.0 assist and 12.2 rebounds per game.

Mike Conley cashes in on 2.3 treys per game.

Anthony Edwards’ 1.2 steals and Gobert’s 2.5 blocks per game are key to the Timberwolves’ defensive production.

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